Weatherwise, it looks like there’s an interesting weekend ahead of us. The low that develops tomorrow, proves that the old adage of three fine days and a thunderstorm is still alive and kicking (figs 1 & 2). I never realised that the phrase was coined by George II, but it was, according to a 2011 Daily Telegraph article by Philip Eden. And we aren’t out of the woods even when that system has cleared out-of-the-way, because later on Sunday things look like they’re going down hill again, especially in the south. There’s a reasonable amount of agreement between the UKMO and the GFS models for Saturday as far as I can see, which is good, particularly when it’s just over 24 hours away.
It looks like the Met Office are going for both events in a big way as far as warnings that they’ve just issued is concerned. Strangely, they exclude the overnight rain tonight in the southwest from the first yellow warning (fig 3), they obviously don’t see the amounts of rain as causing any significant problems, we shall see.
It looks like model guidance is indicating that the rain that will spread north later on Sunday will be a bigger problem in the south though (fig 4).