The autumn switch on

Figure 1

It’s a bit blowy in places this morning, particularly so in the southwest, judging by the gusts in the 08 UTC chart (fig 1). Over the last couple of days here in mid-Devon our central heating has triggered into action first thing in the morning, and it seems we have suddenly switched into Autumn mode. We could see more widespread gales across the south, from the deepening low on Tuesday though, because today’s T+48 forecast chart (fig 2) from the GFS is little changed from yesterday’s T+72. I still can’t seem to get that Dexy’s Midnight Runner song out of my head since yesterday.

Figure 2

Come on Aileen!

Figure 1

I see that the Met Office have just issued a yellow warnings for strong winds for Monday across the southwest of England, but the gradient on Tuesday evening when the next low breezes in looks even tighter in the latest GFS model run, maybe this is storm Aileen, and the first storm of the 2017-18 season?

Figure 2

If anything the Met Office model seems to have the low (981 hPa) a little more intense and deeper than the ~984 hPa of the GFS.

Apologies for the title of this one, but I thought that I would get in before the Daily Express did!