Here’s a chart of temperature anomalies that I’ve calculated from the NCEP reanalysis data for the first 24 days of November 2016 for the Arctic region. And again, it’s showing massive positive temperature anomalies across the board, it’s no wonder that the sea ice is struggling to increase in extent this Autumn in the Arctic. Below is a bar chart of temperature anomalies for the grid point at 77°30’N and 15° E (close to Ny-Ålesund on the Island of Jan Mayen), and as you can see they have been generally between +5°C and +10°C for much of the time since September 2016. Obviously there is a lot of warm air finding its way into the Arctic from further south, but I think the anomalies may be even larger around Jan Mayen because this winters sea ice has been so slow to form (see bottom image), and temperatures over open water (even though the sea surface temperature is close to zero) are obviously going to be much warmer than they would be over frozen sea ice.
Just to emphasise the plight of polar sea ice which is now firmly planted on the endangered species list right below the Siberian Tiger, I thought I would try to emulate some of the fancy charts that have been doing the rounds on the internet that attempt to visualise 38 years of daily sea ice extents in a single line graph. It’s a little bit tricky with my number of active brain cells just to get the right grey scale colours for the line series and the x-axis to plot correctly, but three hours later and et voilà !
I’ve been going on about the dire state of the Arctic sea ice this autumn and this chart shows exactly why. The sea ice extent has never been in these unchartered warmer than average waters before as the red line in the chart shows. Never mind let’s see how the Antarctic is performing, in recent years its being doing so well…
Well what do you know that’s crashing as well and also deep in uncharted waters as the red line above shows. The thinner blues line is where it was as recently as 2014, just what is going on? Finally if you add the total for the Arctic with the total for the Antarctic you get the global polar sea ice extent. I’ve never done much with these statistics before, so I was surprised to find that last year (2015) they hit a minimum, and the way things are going that record minimum is going to be broken again, I would say smashed but that might be sensationalist, probably around February of 2017, because by that time we will have probably set a new low Arctic maximum and a new low Antarctic minimum – the perfect storm for sea ice.
I wrote about how low the latest Arctic sea ice figure only last Friday but they don’t seem to want to recover looking at the latest figures for the 1st of November. Apologies for revisiting sea ice as a topic so many times recently, but I think this is very important and no one seems to be taking that much interest in the latest crash in the daily extent figures. The graphic below shows the latest values, and as you can see from the table 2016 has the lowest extent for the 1st of November since records began in 1979. It beats the second lowest (1st of November 2012) in the table by a massive 900,000 square kilometres if my maths is correct. The extent is only 72.9% of the long-term average and if it keeps this up will easily beat the current lowest maximum of 2014/15 unless there is a very cold winter to come to help redress the balance.
I am not totally convinced that the National Snow and Ice Data Center [NSIDC] are fully up to speed with what is happening at the moment with the latest figures after reading their latest news. Perhaps after years of talking about the decline in Arctic sea ice, they have become desensitized to all its daily foibles.
I suppose one man’s sluggish is just another man’s stalled. Perhaps I’m a bit like Captain Mainwaring and I just need Corporal Jones to come along and shout ‘don’t panic’ very loudly in my ear – time will tell as it always does.
An absolute fascinating insight to show exactly what’s going on at the moment with Arctic sea ice!
Last week I wrote about how dire I thought the latest Arctic sea ice figures were. Since then I’ve been keeping an even a closer eye on them than I usually do, and if anything they look even worse. For the 27th of October, 2016 has the lowest sea ice extent on record (since 1979), with only 74.6% of average, and far lower than 2012 (which is second lowest) by over 400,000 square kilometers or 4.6% by area. I know things can change, and I know it’s still early in the season, but remember you read it here first because I’ve heard nobody in the media make any mention of this slump as yet as they surely will.
It was only at the beginning of the month that the National and Snow and Ice Data Center [NSIDC] were saying that Arctic sea ice had increased at a rapid rate (see below), which at first it did do, as it bounced back from a very early minimum, but I think they may have spoken too soon.
Don’t look for any solace in the Antarctic either, because things are also pretty extreme there as well, with the value for the 27th of October also at a record low for that date (at 94.9% of average), with sea ice now tracking just below the x2 standard deviation area of the graph.
After a very early minimum (7 September) Arctic sea ice started very strongly to get itself back above the 2 x standard deviation [2xSD] region (the very light grey area in the graph) during the remainder of September. That acceleration ran out of steam (pardon the pun) and the sea ice extent has now fallen back well below the 2xSD and is currently the lowest it’s ever been for the 19th of October since theses records started in 1978. It’s a shade lower than it was in 2007 and only 69.9 of the average for this day so less than 30% below normal.
Looking at the Arctic ocean there seems to be a dearth in sea ice along both the Russian Siberian coast in the east and the Alaskan Canadian coast in the west. It looks pretty dire for so early in the season, and must have a knock on effect in the coming the northern hemisphere winter in some way.
I would like to report that in the Antarctic things are looking up but I’m afraid not! The gains in recent years are a thing of the past , and the early maximum this year on the 28th of August is a sign that things aren’t any better down under. The extent has just slipped out of the 2xSD area of the graph and currently for the 19th of October is the lowest it’s ever been on that day of the year. The good news is that it’s less that 5% lower than average, and not 30% lower as in the Arctic. The eagle-eyed amongst you will be wondering why 1986 isn’t top of the lowest table, the reason is that reports back then were every other day and not daily.
It’s hardly surprising in what will more than likely be the warmest year on record globally, so you’ll have to get used to more Winter’s devoid of snow as I have in Devon during recent years, running outside in a morning to grab a picture of the hoar frost before it melts.
Rather bizarrely the melt season in the Arctic was the fourth shortest in the Sea Ice data series that started in 1979. As you can see from the above chart, the melt started on March 21st of this year and ended on the 7th of September, which made the melt season 169 days long, the shortest since the 166 days of 1997. The short season is down not just to a very late maximum, but also an early minimum, but why that should occur in a season that saw the second lowest maximum is slightly puzzling. The spring maximum was 13 days later than average, and the autumn minimum was 4 days early than average.
Here’s a ranked list of the shortest melt season in the Arctic.
In the Antarctic as you can see there has been a lengthening of the freeze season by 6 days and a reduction of the melt season by 11 days since 1980.
I will warn you now, that I use the daily values from the series in my stats, and not the trailing five-day mean which the National Snow and Ice data Centre [NSIDC] have recently switched to, although I shouldn’t imagine that would have made much difference.
It’s not quite reached the minimum sea ice extent in the Arctic but it’s close. The average date for the Arctic minimum is in fact the 11th of September as far as I can see, and looking at the latest figures up until the 7th of September that’s still in doubt, especially as the minima could still occur as late as the 21st (as it did in 1989) which could mean a further two weeks of decline.
Meanwhile 180° south, the Antarctic sea ice is reaching its peak, which if my programming is correct is still 12 days short of the average data maxima occurs on the 19th of September. The increase in sea ice has taken quite a knock in the last 10 days, and at the moment the 2016 maximum has dropped to the 22nd highest since 1979.
Looking at the bigger picture and the rolling 365 day mean since 1989 it’s clear that as the Arctic sea ice has dropped by 14.1% in those 27 years whilst at the same time the Antarctic sea ice has increased by 7.6%, although in the last year that increase has slowed quickly.
How low can it go?
With the suspension of the normal sea ice index, here are some of the images from the provisional F18 data of the ASINA site. To be honest the Americans couldn’t have picked a better year to update the way that they measure sea ice, because as you can see from the chart below, Arctic sea ice totals are in meltdown – well in summer they always are I suppose but this time it’s a doozy. There seem to be holes appearing in the ice sheet where they just shouldn’t be holes at this time of the year. The coast of eastern Greenland looks stripped bare of sea ice, and there are long gaps all along the Alaskan coast with no ice, not to mention the frontal lobotomy that has existed right through the winter in the Barents sea area. It looks odd on that summer 2016 is going to set a new extreme low record for Arctic sea ice, the only question is how low will it get? This story is not going to away and is going to big news the closer we get to September.
Things are looking a little more healthy in the Antarctic, but having said that the gains that the sea ice made in the early Autumn now seemed to have vanished, and the graph of the total sea ice extent has shifted to the other side of average during the last month or so. Looking at the map the sea ice seems to have exploded out of the Weddell sea, but the sea ice edge has been trimmed back to the NNE and WSW (best I can do without a better map!). Hopefully the NSIDC sea ice index will make a swift return in the next month or so.
All images courtesy of the NSIDC.