Figure 1 – Original UKP and CET data courtesy of the Met Office.
I reckon that there has been an almost 60% decline in annual snowfall since 1931. This won’t surprise a lot of people, because snow has become something of a scarce commodity in recent Winters, especially the further south that you are. Before I go any further the science behind this article is a bit thin, it’s based on a mix of daily Central England Temperatures [CET] and daily UKP rainfall (central region), but what the hell, you’ve got to start from somewhere, and I don’t think the Met office would have provided me with the required climate data to do this for free.
The biggest fudge factor, and don’t forget that even the most sophisticated and complicated NWP software employ some kind of fudge, is the algorithm that takes a daily maximum and minimum temperature, and decides if there’s any precipitation reported for that day, what likely probability is that it would fall as snow and accumulate. This is obviously easy if the maximum temperature for the day in question was below freezing, but not so easy say if the maximum is +5°C and the minimum is -1°C, so all you can do is give it your best guess. I suppose you could also look up the LWT for that day, and maybe get some kind of idea of what kind of air mass the country is under, but I didn’t go that far, and kept it as simple as possible.
Getting back to the chart (fig 1), you will see that my trusty algorithm has identified the snowiest winter in the last 86 years as being that of 1946-47, so that’s a good start. The second snowiest season it reckons was 1978-79, and having experienced of winters since the early 1960’s in various parts of the country I wouldn’t disagree with that. I guess that the accumulated snowfall for that season, ignoring melting of course, was close to a 100 cm, with 1946-47 producing an accumulation of just over 140 cm. I entitled the first article that I wrote about using daily CET and UKP to estimate a snow depth; ‘Central England Snowfall’; in fact it’s probably more appropriate to imagine the value as an index rather than a specific depth of snow. There have been some years with no snowfall when the algorithm couldn’t detect any snow, these were for the years 1988-89, 2013-14 and 2016-17, perhaps the code I calculate the daily probabilities requires a bit of tweaking, but then again, the last snow that I can remember settling down here in our part of Devon, was way back in 2010.
I did the original work for the application, which I call Central England Snowfall, about ten years ago now, but after deciding to give the code a bit of a spring clean today, I thought that I’d write an article around it. It’s a bit of fun because the science that I use could be regarded as suspect, but as far as I know, there are no long-term graphs available on the internet for annual snowfall totals for any climate station in the UK. If you do find one, or perhaps know of a graph than spans 60 years or more please let me know, because I would be very interested to see it, and would certainly include it in this article. I do have some evidence though, in the shape of daily climate records courtesy of Alistair McClean, Curator of Natural Science at the Weston Park Museum in Sheffield, for the period 1950-2010, which luckily includes daily values of fresh snow and snow depth. As you can see in this shorter period (fig 2), annual totals on the linear trend have also declined, by almost 40% in the last sixty years. The graphs are quite similar, even the estimate of snowfall that I make for the winter of 1978-79 are reasonably close (actual 116 cm estimated 98 cm). Having experienced that winter firsthand in the higher suburbs of that city though, I would say that the reported values maybe rather on the low side.
Figure 2 – Data courtesy of Weston Park Museum, Sheffield
It’s a great shame that the Met Office stopped producing the Snow Survey of Great Britain in 1991, if that information could be digitised and collated it would make a wonderful climate resource for snowfall in the UK. Finally, I would just like to give a special mention to the website of Dr Richard Wild and is thesis ‘Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Heavy Snowfalls across Great Britain between the years 1861-1999‘, a fascinating read for the snow lovers amongst us.