Good week, bad week

Figure 1

We seem to be caught up in a cycle of good week bad week at the moment, and next week looks pretty grim, at least from Tuesday onwards looking at the latest run of the GFS model (fig 1). It’s not well supported by the T+84 forecast chart from the UKMO though (fig 2). The GFS does hint at a return to Summer by next weekend (T+180) to keep the cycle going but don’t hold your breath.

Figure 2 – Courtesy of UKMO

I’m sure that someday the Met Office will move on from the archaic format in which they prefer to display their NWP forecast output (fig 2), but for now we are stuck with the old ‘fax’ chart that’s changed little (apart from the addition of the thickness lines) since I joined the Office in 1970, and the eight forecast charts out to T+120 that they publish.

Sunny start to July 2017

Sunniest place is Jersey with an average of almost 10 hours a day for the first week, but very dismal in the Highlands of Scotland and the west of Ireland, with Connaught seeing only 7.3 hours during the whole week.

Today’s thundery showers

Never an easy one to get right as regards warnings for heavy rain from thunderstorms is concerned, but I think the Met Office forecasters just about got it right today with the thundery showers that affected the country (fig 2). I notice that they did shrink the warnings area during the day to exclude Kent and Sussex, although I did notice another large CB that’s developed over NE France on the visible satellite image late this afternoon.

Figure 1 – courtesy of Blitzortung

What particularly fascinated me about today’s weather was the arc of AC castellanus that developed and extended from Exmouth E’NEward towards East Anglia through the morning, and gradually thickened to produce quite an active band of thunderstorms during the afternoon.

The very thick cirrus spissatus that rolled in from the west this afternoon across Devon, did take the edge of the extremely bright and burning sunshine, on what was the hottest day of the year here (maximum 31.6°C, yes I know, is far too high, but the AWS is getting on a bit like me). I was surprised that the LCBR at Exeter airport didn’t detect it, but I noticed that the AWS at Dunkeswell did report half cover at 23,000 feet last hour.

Figure 2 – Courtesy of the Met Office weather radar

England Wales rainfall remains below average

Figure 1 – UKP data courtesy of the Met Office

The latest 365 day precipitation accumulations for England and Wales for June, are still returning negative anomalies despite recent some heavy rainfall events during the last month places. The England and Wales accumulation for the 30th of June was 797.9 mm, or 85.7% of the long-term average, the driest since Spring 2012.

Mighty oaks from little acorns do grow…

Or in this case, mighty cumulonimbus from little cumulus. It would have been interesting to see a time lapse of how this CB exploded into life in the middle of the English Channel this morning from somewhere high up on the south downs (fig 1).

Figure 1

There was some lovely fine AC castellanus towards the SE horizon in south Devon this morning (fig 2).

Figure 2

The first wave of thundery activity seems may have slipped further south than the Met Office chief forecaster anticipated (fig 3). But you never can tell with thunderstorms, as you can see with the speed that the one in the Channel developed, and I can already see some bright echoes on the weather radar across Suffolk at 09 UTC. This seems to be from the same arc of castellanus that’s spread ENE from across Dorset (fig 4), and looks to be all medium level instability, rather than the area of CB’s that’s now over the eastern Channel and NE France.

Figure 3 – Courtesy of the Met Office
Figure 4

BBC weather presenters and EQ

Figure 1 – Courtesy of the BBC

Why is it that when there is any fine weather around do they always invariably end their presentation by stating how warm  or hot it will be in London or the southeast tomorrow[1]?

Is is because they lack even a smidgen of EQ[2] regarding the remaining 56,879,498 of us (65,514,2488,634,750) that don’t actually live, or ever want to live in the southeast of England? The weather may be equally as sunny, and on many occasions the temperature anomaly might be just as high wherever you live, but it always seem to boil down to just one thing – tomorrows forecast maximum temperature for Heathrow.

Why couldn’t they occasionally just end the forecast by saying something like – Enjoy the fine, sunny weather wherever you are in the country

Knowing that the temperature is going to exceed 30°C tomorrow in the London area just isn’t that informative for the 86.8% of people who don’t live there, especially if you live hundreds of miles from it, and try to avoid it like the plague.

I don’t know how it affects any of my readers, but it sure annoys the hell out of me, because they all do it, and always will do it, irrespective of where they originally hail from, because it’s not about where you are from, it’s about where they call home now, somewhere in deepest Metroland.

  1. Or, if you happen to be listening to Chris Fawkes by him saying – and that’s ya’ weather.
  2. Emotional intelligence (EI) is the capability of individuals to recognize their own and other people’s emotions, discern between different feelings and label them appropriately, use emotional information to guide thinking and behavior, and manage and/or adjust emotions to adapt to environments or achieve one’s goals.