Lovely morning down here in the southwest, but the wind is adding a bit of a bite to it even so, with a-5.6°C wind chill at nearby Dunkeswell at 10 UTC (fig 1). The SC sheet that’s lying across northern England and Wales seems to be aligned with the lighter winds down the axis of the ridge (fig 2).
There’s talk of a SSW event later in the month, which may explain why the GFS model has been in a total quandary for a while now, with little consistency from run to run beyond T+120.
Any morning cloud that’s been affecting some southern areas has now dissolved away, and it’s a wonderful afternoon across the bulk of the country. It’s still possible to see the extent of the snow over the mountains of Scotland through the thickening frontal cloud (fig 1).
The easterly wind is blowing fresh or strong across southern areas though (fig 2).
This has meant that wind chill has been sub-zero in the more exposed places (fig 3), but not excessively low because of the clear skies and widespread sunshine (fig 4).
A large range of wind chill values across the country (JAG) as you would expect today, from -17°C on top of Cairngorm behind the cold front, to 11°C at Benson in Oxfordshire still in the warm air at 11 UTC. I can already see that the BBC weather presenters have dusted down ‘the feels like’ graphics in their presentations.
Not incredibly cold as far as wind chill goes today across the country, generally in the range of 1 to 4°C using the JAG/TI formula, except of course if you find yourself on top of a mountain such as in the Cairngorms, where the wind chill is as low as -15°C at the moment.
This is the wind chill for around the British Isles for 09 UTC this Sunday morning (fig 1). It’s still predominantly cloudy over most places apart from the northwest of Scotland, and the SC layer in the west is showing a good wave effect to it (fig 2).
I wonder if the Helm wind is blowing today? I certainly wouldn’t fancy my chances on top of Cross Fell this morning (fig 3), but no doubt there will be some people up there nevertheless.
The milder air that’s forecast to warm things up during the coming week is already showing it’s hand over the south of France (fig 4).
The low stratus is finally clearing across the southwest of England as drier air is entrained across the Channel from France. There’s been a lovely wave-like ripple in the low cloud running downwind of Cornwall through the Celtic Sea, and along the eastern side of the Irish through today.
It looks like that they’ll be a number of stations reporting an ice day today, judging by the mid-afternoon temperatures across some parts of Eastern England at the moment. The temperature at Wattisham for instance at 14 UTC was -2.4°C, and -1.6°C and -2.1°C at Wittering and Andrewsfield respectively, this combined with the wind speed make it a fairly penetrating black frost.