It’s the 23rd of June, and today is Midsummer Eve, and tomorrow is Midsummer’s Day or St Johns day. I was just perusing my copy of the Weather Lore book compiled by Richard Inwards in 1898 as you do, to see if there were any sayings concerning midsummer, and I found quite a few, one of the best of them is this one:
If it rains on Midsummer Eve,
the filberts will be spoiled.
I already realised that any proverbs, saying or rule concerning the weather were a complete nonsense, but the Weather Lore book which lists hundreds of them just reinforced it. A filbert by the way is a type of hazelnut, and it looks like the crop will be reasonably good this year, apart from parts of Wales. Another classic is this one, which seems rather apposite for this year:
Before St John’s Day we pray for rain;
after that we get it anyhow.
Weatherwise, it looks like there’s an interesting weekend ahead of us. The low that develops tomorrow, proves that the old adage of three fine days and a thunderstorm is still alive and kicking (figs 1 & 2). I never realised that the phrase was coined by George II, but it was, according to a 2011 Daily Telegraph article by Philip Eden. And we aren’t out of the woods even when that system has cleared out-of-the-way, because later on Sunday things look like they’re going down hill again, especially in the south. There’s a reasonable amount of agreement between the UKMO and the GFS models for Saturday as far as I can see, which is good, particularly when it’s just over 24 hours away.
Figure 1 – Courtesy of OGIMET
Figure 2 – Courtesy of the Met Office
It looks like the Met Office are going for both events in a big way as far as warnings that they’ve just issued is concerned. Strangely, they exclude the overnight rain tonight in the southwest from the first yellow warning (fig 3), they obviously don’t see the amounts of rain as causing any significant problems, we shall see.
Figure 3 – Courtesy of the Met Office
It looks like model guidance is indicating that the rain that will spread north later on Sunday will be a bigger problem in the south though (fig 4).
Figure 4 – Courtesy of the Met Office
Another touch of frost in places overnight, with air temperatures down to -1.8°C across the southeast of England this morning (fig 2). There has been a more general and sharp ground frost across most of the southern and eastern England too (fig 1), which won’t have please a lot of gardeners.
In fact the cold air at the moment is quite widespread across much of northern Europe and eastern Russia (fig 3), nothing exceptional, but because it comes after another relatively mild Winter and Spring so far, it’s come as a bit of a shock to some. And remember – ne’er cast a clout till May be out.
According to the latest forecast charts (fig 3) it looks like we are in for a spell of cold easterly winds right through this coming weekend along the south coast and especially in the southwest. In fact it might not be till the middle of next week before that nagging easterly starts to veer round to the south. Today feels more like January than the middle of March in our part of Devon, and it reminds me of the old rhyme:
When the wind is in the east,
‘Tis neither good for man nor beast;
When the wind is in the north,
The skillful fisher goes not forth;
When the wind is in the south,
It blows the bait in the fishes’ mouth;
When the wind is in the west,
Then ’tis at the very best.
Hopefully the frontal cloud that’s spinning around the low might start to thin and break by Saturday and at least then we might get some sun, although the easterly will still be blowing. Further north things look more quiet under the influence of an anticyclone that’s firmly anchored over northern England, so there it will be more a case of sharp overnight frosts, followed by sunny days.