A cold and miserable March ahead?

Figure 1

Rather surprisingly Dublin is as snowy as any other station in this mornings 06 UTC SYNOPs, reporting a level snow depth of 16 cm from showers coming evening off the Irish Sea.

On what is probably going to be the coldest day of this present cold wave across our part of Europe, there has been a widespread severe and penetrating frost overnight. Thanks to a snow surface (I’m guessing there is one there even if they didn’t report one), the coldest low-level station was South Farnborough where the temperature fell to -11.7°C.

Even by 09 UTC this morning, the only station in the British Isles to have an air temperature above freezing was St Mary’s on the Scilly Isles with 0.2°C (fig 2), after reporting a rare frost with a minimum [18-06] of -0.5°C.

Figure 2

The snow showers have just kept coming, and it looks particularly bad today over SE Scotland and NE England, with more snow showers in a strong easterly wind that must be causing some pretty deep drifts. I wonder if the Met Office will issue a red alert for snow and blizzards for the borders or the central belt of Scotland before it’s done?

The spell of snow forecast for the southwest later on Thursday could produce some large snowfall totals before milder air eventually clears it all away. I’ve got a feeling that we might get fed up to the back teeth of March before it’s done, as it looks likely to remain cold and cyclonic till at least mid-month in the latest GFS model run.

Here’s how the Met Office see March panning out (fig 3):

Figure 3 – Courtesy of the Met Office

I find the line “towards the middle of March it may turn more unsettled and less cold” rather strange. Do they mean unsettled compared to how the weather is now, or over the next few days? It’s as if the medium range forecaster hasn’t seen the latest NWP, because the scenario that he describes may happen mid-month, is already forecast to happen at the beginning of the month (fig 4).

Figure 4 – Courtesy of the Met Office

14th February lives up to it’s reputation

Figure 1

The 13/14th of February is statistically the coldest night in Central England, with a 40% chance of an air frost occurring (fig 2), and last night it lived up to its statistical reputation (fig 1), with a widespread sharp frost across a large part of the country. That should push the frequency up for that day by maybe 1/140 of a percent in the last 140 year, or does it?

Figure 2

I also noticed a jump of +6.3° in the air temperature at Exeter between 03 and 04 UTC this morning as the cloud rolled in (fig 3), temperatures are on a bit of a roller coaster ride at the moment.

Figure 3

Forecast of -14°C from the Met Office a little on the low side

Figure 1 – Courtesy of Twitter and the Met Office

Yesterday afternoon the Met Office were promising the coldest night since February 2012 (fig 1) when they said on Twitter:-

“Temps in rural parts of Scotland could fall as low as -14 or -15 °C tonight, which would make it the UK’s coldest night since 11 February 2012, almost 6 years ago! High pressure will bring clear & calm conditions and is dragging cold arctic air from the north”

Unfortunately, the low cloud of yesterday evening didn’t finally clear till towards midnight, neither was it ever  perfectly calm, and with only a patchy or thin cover of snow, the air temperature never got down as low as the -14°C that was promised.

In the end after trawling through all climate reports from sites which they like to keep to themselves, they did manage to find a -9.1°C at Dalwhinnie, just down the A9 from Aviemore (fig 2). The model does have problems, the -9°C instead of -15°C is just a symptom, it mishandled the overnight forecast of low cloud, surface wind, and probably the whole pressure field.

Figure 2 – Courtesy of Twitter and the Met Office

For the rest of us poor mortals who have to rely on the kindness of a man in Barcelona and his OGIMET website, here are the coldest spots from the SYNOP reports (fig 3). As you can see the other forecast temperatures outwith the Highlands of Scotland were much more accurate, except for southern areas and across East Anglia, where the strength of the wind prevented an air frost.

Figure 3
How did the BBC do?

The BBC who presumably use the same model data as the Met Office, almost got it almost right with a -10°C minimum (fig 4). I don’t know what they were thinking with a -4°C for the Western Isles and a -3°C for the Northern Isles though.

Figure 4

At one time the Met Office would have been just content in announcing the coldest night for six years after it had happened. But now because of the pressures of social media and to maintain their corporate image, they feel they must announce it before it does. This faux pas is certainly not on the same scale as the barbecue summer forecast was, and probably will go unnoticed by the vast majority of people anyway.

Overnight ice in southwest poorly forecast

Figure 1 – Courtesy of BBC Spotlight (6.55PM)

Here’s the forecast 04 UTC temperatures from the BBC (fig 1) in what constitutes the overnight minimum chart from yesterday evening’s news. As you can see the model colour contoured NWP temperatures have been totally ignored, and labels for much warmer temperatures of “towns and cities” overlaid on top. To me this is totally misleading to any viewer, but the BBC weather presenters continually to do this, ignoring the fact that Exeter airport is one of top UK cold spots, and last night it caught them out again (fig 2), with temperatures dipping to -3.5°C. Even sites closer to the sea such as Plymouth and Culdrose saw a slight touch of frost – their first of the Autumn or Winter.

Figure 2

Unusually the Met Office did respond with a very belated yellow warning of ice for the southwest at 0637 UTC (fig 3), no doubt when they heard about some road accident caused by the rain from yesterday’s showers freezing on roads across Devon and Cornwall.

Figure 3 – Courtesy of the Met Office

There was really no excuse for the lateness of this warning, especially when the Met Office HQ lies just a mile or so west of the airport. They obviously have to follow a process to cover themselves from any possible repercussions from accidents and injuries caused by icy roads and pavements, the only problem is that it came at least 12 hours too late! Temperatures at the airport were already -2°C at 23 UTC yesterday evening so there really was little excuse (fig 4).

Figure 4

They didn’t do too well in the National forecast either, although Darren Bett did say that “cloud might be a bit more unreliable in central areas and that there might be a touch of frost” there (fig 5). I’m not sure if the -3.6° C at Pershore can be regarded as a “touch of frost” though.

Figure 5 courtesy of the BBC (6.30PM)
What went wrong?

I think that the Met Office model, especially across the southwest, just kept producing too much in the way of cloud and showers for much of the night (fig 6) which just didn’t materialise, from looking at the weather radar. I would love to grab some forecast NWP evidence from the UKMO mesoscale model to back that up, but of course that’s on a need-to-know basis, and I don’t need to know!

Figure 6 – Courtesy of BBC Spotlight (6.55PM)

It’s all happening today – snow, frost, strong winds and thunderstorms

Figure 1 – 09 UTC Friday 29th December 2017

I get the impression that things have been running just a little faster than forecast during the night. The cold front has fairly rattled through western parts (fig 1), followed behind in the fresh to strong westerly flow by a clutch of thundery showers (fig 2). Snow is falling further east from the Peak District northward much as expected in the yellow and amber alerts from the Met Office. No great snow depth reported from the sensors in the AWS network at 09 UTC, although it must be piling up quite nicely over higher ground of the Pennines. A small discrete low pressure centre has formed on the cold front just southwest of Birmingham in the large pressure falls just ahead of it, although this feature is not expected to persist.

Figure 2 – Courtesy of Blitzortung

A sharp frost in northern areas overnight. In parts of northern Scotland it was particularly severe with Loch Glascarnoch dipping to -12.3°C (fig 3). So last night failed to become the coldest of the year as some forecast it would.

Figure 3

Not too hot on last night’s mins

Figure 1 – Forecast rural minima courtesy of Twitter & Met Office [27/28 Dec 2017]
Figure 2 – Actual [18-06] minima from SYNOPs courtesy of OGIMET [27/28 Dec 2017]

I wonder what the verification score was for last night’s forecast minima temperatures across the UK by the Met Office? The forecast was for a moderate or severe frost (fig 1) which never quite made it. The forecast of a minimum of -10°C at Aviemore for example, ended up being -0.7°C (compare figs 1 & 2). A lot of places may have had a bit of a snow cover, but it was much cloudier in the north than forecast, and the wind never quite died down either to make it a more ideal radiation night (fig 3). Despite having no snow cover, Exeter airport were number two in the coldest spots with -3.7°C when the forecast minimum was -1°C. I wonder just how many times they have to get it wrong before they fine tune their forecast for Exeter Airport and get it right?

Figure 3

I would have liked to have added a graphic of what the BBC weather forecast for last night looked like, but the BBC has not made any news bulletin it broadcast yesterday available on iPlayer.

Spare a thought for those of us who haven’t seen any snow or frost yet

Figure 1

You might be thinking it’s been quite a snowy end to 2017 wherever you live in the country, but spare a thought for those of us down here in the southwest who so far have yet to see a snowflake. In Cornwall none of the SYNOP stations have reported an air frost so far this Autumn, and even here in mid-Devon although we have had four air frosts, and only one of these was for a temperature lower than -0.2°C.

I’d like to do a similar thing with snow that I do with frost, by checking for the occurrences of snow in the present weather from the hourly SYNOP files. Not only would that mean opening thousands of hourly SYNOP files, but many of the AWS reports either don’t report a present weather, or if they do they’re not that reliable when it comes to the reporting of freezing precipitation. The same thing applies to the reporting of thunderstorms, I have yet to see an AWS report a thunderstorm, even though I know the more sophisticated Vaisala systems are capable of sensing them.