Cooler for some, warmer for others

Figure 1

It maybe a lot cooler for some first thing this morning in comparison with yesterday morning, more notably in the west and southwest of the country, but for other places, particularly in the east it’s much warmer than it was this time yesterday. The chart above (fig 1) is the 24 hour temperature difference, the chart below (fig 2) is the 24 hour differences in humidity.

It’s a lot more difficult to see whats going on with these humidity changes, the North Sea, Denmark, and much of Scandinavia are a lot more humid than yesterday, but lower humidities are evident in the southwest of Ireland, the far southwest and central parts of England.

Figure 2

The use of ‘fresher’ is obviously subjective, and is often bandied about by weather presenters without too much thought, other than to overly dramatise changes. The one big thing that I know is missing this morning in our part of Devon, is the sunshine of the last week (fig 3), it’s rather cloudy, temperature wise it’s certainly cooler than yesterday, but still fairly warm with temperatures around 18°C.

Figure 3

Warmest June day here since at least 2004

Jersey looks like taking the crown today as the warmest SYNOP station in WMO block #03, with a temperature just over 90°F at 14 UTC (fig 1).

Figure 1

Here in Bradninch mid-Devon, the temperature has been hovering around 30 or 31°C for much of the afternoon, so to escape the sun that I’d string some code together and look at a couple of thermographs since Saturday for Exeter (fig 2) and Heathrow (fig 3).

Figure 2

Not bad going for Devon, when you consider that Exeter is always starting several degrees cooler than Heathrow each day. I think the sea breeze just kicked in time to prevent the temperature at Exeter airport possibly exceeding 31°C at 14 UTC, as it did here in Bradninch. My Vantage Pro has been recording temperature since September 2004 and this afternoon’s max of 31.3°C makes it the warmest June day in that time.

Figure 3

Maximum temperatures in the southwest and the BBC

Every year when the summer starts in earnest and weather presenters start talking about how warm it is (particularly in the southeast), they start presenting charts with temperatures across the southwest of England several degrees lower than the rest of the country, and every year I can’t help writing a protest blog like this one! Today was a perfect example, take a look at yesterday’s forecast temperatures for 16 PM (15 UTC) today as presented by Jay Wynne on BBC 1 at 1.25 PM.

Figure 1 – Courtesy of the BBC

Now have a look at today’s actual values from across the country (fig 2).

Figure 2

As you can see it’s actually 20.8°C in Plymouth, 21.1°C at Culdrose and 23.0°C at Cardinham, so the forecast for Plymouth is too low, not only that, where the 19 label is drawn on the BBC graphics right on top of Exeter, where the temperature at 4 PM today was a hot 27.1°C, that’s a full 8°C higher than on the chart. The forecast temperature for Plymouth looked wrong yesterday, and it was wrong in reality today. For goodness sake, why don’t the BBC simply choose a city that’s more representative of the southwest, or perhaps display the maximum forecast temperature for the whole region.

  • I did a quick search and I can see I’ve already had a go at the BBC this year back in April.
  • It looks like its not only maximum temperatures that get me going.
  • And here is last years effort.

The one thing you can’t accuse me of is, and that’s a lack of consistency when it comes to temperature forecasts from the BBC.

A perfect summer’s day…

Figure 1

I realise it’s not the same thing as UV, but the hourly solar radiation figures in the SYNOP reports do give you a very good idea of the sun’s strength at the moment, which is extremely strong across most areas. I know that down here in Devon, I’m starting to burn in less than 5 minutes sat out in it. It’s a funny thing, you wait patiently for the first hot sunny summers day to arrive, but then when it does, you have to hide from the sun.

Figure 2

The fair weather cumulus across East Anglia, has pegged solar radiation values down there a touch (fig 2), but in many other places it’s well in excess of 3000 kJ/m² (fig 1) this lunchtime.

Figure 3

The usual culprits are at the top of warmest places from the SYNOPs, but Exeter is doing quite well with 25.9°C at 13 UTC. It’s almost 4 degrees warmer than that here, about 8 km to the north of the airport, but my Vantage Pro is far too well sheltered, and at the moment is covered in splashes of Ambre Solaire.

Today’s alternative list of warmest places

The warmest place may have been Heathrow with a high of 24.3°C (anomaly +3.0°C) today, but in the alternative ‘anomaly’ top ten they only finished in joint 10th place, and it was Ballypatrick in County Antrim, that topped the list with an anomaly of +5.7°C anomaly (fig 1).

Figure 1

Spare a thought for those in the west and north…

Quite a temperature contrast going on in the last week between places in the south and east, and places further north and west, here’s a chart of the mean maximum temperature for the last 7 days across WMO block 03 (fig 1). Mean temperatures range from just over 15°C on the coastal fringes of western Ireland, and western and northern Scotland, to as high as 23.8°C in the heat island of London and Heathrow airport. I should imagine that the gap may widen even more in the coming week.

Figure 1

 

Finally, promised fresher weather arrives in southwest

Figure 1

It’s took all week, and any number of stalled cold fronts, but the promised fresher air from the west finally arrived here in the southwest overnight. Some valley fog at sunrise in the Culm valley, and a minimum of just 4.0°C and grass minimum of 1°C at Exeter airport. It’s never got overly warm by day here in Devonshire in the last month, but the nights have been very mild and calm.

Figure 2

 

 

Spring 2017 warmest on record in Central England

Figure 1

It may not have been the warmest May on record, but with the help of a very mild March (ranked #3), Spring 2017 was the warmest since at least 1659 in Central England, with a mean temperature of 10.25°C, which makes the anomaly +2.01°C above the 1961-1990 long-term average. Of course, we are talking here of meteorological seasons MAM, which as you know I’m no great fan of, but what the hell. It was a very closely fought thing though, because 2017 only just pipped 2011 into second place by 0.03°C (fig 3).

Figure 2

Figure 3

 

 

 

A bit parky in the land of the midnight sun…

Figure 1

It’s been a cold late spring over northern Scandinavia and Russia, so even when the sun is shining for much of the time, it’s still been cold, and there’s still a reasonable snow cover, even though it’s nearly June. In the plotted SYNOP chart (fig 1) stations with the yellow box and SD indicate the snow depth at 06 UTC this morning. Far from exceptional, but after what was another in a long series of mild winters, I think the cold weather might have come as a bit of a shock to some of the locals as well as the tourists up there at the moment.

The 12 UTC temperature anomalies of -5°C over northern Russia for the last 12 days or so might well tie in with the Arctic sea ice fight back that’s going on at the moment (fig 2), and which I commented about in my last blog. Having said that it looks like the bulk of the colder than average air in the Arctic this month, is on our side of the Pole, if that makes sense (there has to be a term for that). It’s no real surprise either, to see a tongue of positive anomalies, extend northeastward right from Morocco to southern Sweden.

Figure 2

19 May – cold front drops temperatures sharply across Germany

Figure 1

The cold front that brought all the rain to parts of England earlier this week finally managed to penetrate the warm air over central Europe and bring thunderstorms and a sharp drop of temperature with it. The interesting thing about the 15 UTC visible satellite image (fig 1) is just how sharp an edge of the cloud the cold front had, it was either blues skies or frontal cloud, and in the image I can see at least three large embedded CB’s. The demarcation in cloud reminded me of what occurred earlier this week over southeast England. Here’s the Met Office analysis for yesterday at 12 UTC (fig 2), and as you can see there is not just one cold front but two.

Figure 2 – Courtesy of the UKMO

Here’s the plotted chart for 15 UTC yesterday for the area (fig 3) and notice that temperatures at places ahead of the cold front in eastern Germany where as high as 30°C at that time.

Figure 3

Here’s the observation sequence from Regensburg, Bavaria for the last 24 hours, in the space of just a few hours the temperature fell from over 30°C to around 11°C (fig 4) during the late afternoon.

Figure 4

Judging by the 06-18 UTC rainfall totals (fig 5) the convective activity from the CB’s didn’t produce the heaviest rainfall, that occurred further west in the frontal cloud, even though there was a lot of SFERIC activity (fig 6).

Figure 5

Figure 6 – Courtesy of Blitzortung