Autumn warmth continues

Figure 1

The current warm spell of weather across Central England, and rather spookily ushered in by the start of the astronomical Autumn, seems to be running on and on, and there doesn’t seem to be any sign in the latest NWP forecast charts that it intends to stop! The above chart clearly shows the warmth of the last four weeks or so (fig 1).  The maximum temperature on ‘Ophelia day’ (the 16th of October) of 19.5°C, broke a record that had stood since the great Autumn of 1959,  no mean feat.

Figure 2

Autumn mild spell continues into start of November

The low pressure area that’s currently over the northeast of Russia; as forecast by the latest run of the GFS model; is set to be replaced by a large anticyclone with a central pressure of 1040 hPa or higher by this time next week. This will in effect stem the flow of cyclones from tracking from the Atlantic across Scandinavia and into Russia as they have been doing of late, as pressure rises over Scandinavia and a block forms. This in turn will back the flow across the eastern Atlantic as it becomes progressively more meridional. This in turn will ensure the continuation of the autumn warm spell, and if anything we could see even higher anomalies both by day and night as we move into Autumn.

There’s quite a bit of conjecture in that last paragraph, so take it with the pinch of salt it deserves, but remember that you read it here first.

Warmest 16th October in UK on record

Figure 1

As I mentioned a couple of times in my blogs on Monday, yesterday was indeed the warmest 16th of October in UK on record. The temperature reached 23.5°C at Manston in Kent before the dust from the Sahara and the smoke cloud from Portugal blocked out the sun during the afternoon (fig 1). The previous record of 23.2°C was recorded at Valley on Anglesey in 1977 (fig 2).

Figure 2 – Courtesy of TORRO

Ophelia – 13 UTC

Figure 1

I reckon the very worst is now over for the south coast of Ireland, the wind has veered southwesterly and although it’s still gusting to more than 80 mph at Roches point the gradient should start to open a bit as the wind veers a little more into the west. Massive pressure rises over Valentia in the southwest now pushing Ophelia north-northeast where it should finally make landfall in county Clare or Galway. I see Weybourne in Norfolk reached 23.2°C at 13 UTC so it did break the warmest day record. By the way the contouring can’t handle Ophelia at all well but you probably already noticed that.

23.2°C at Manston equals the warmest 16th of October on record

Figure 1

There’s nothing quite like the British weather, with gusts of 67 mph on the Scilly Isles in the west on the 12 UTC chart (fig 1), and temperature of 23.2°C in the east at Manston, which more than likely makes it the warmest 16th October on record. In Ireland the storm force winds continue, and are still gusting in excess of 90 mph on the south coast, as Ophelia tracks slightly northwest of Valentia on the west coast, what about this for a pressure kick (fig 2).

Figure 2

Temperature shoots up to 22.0°C at Trawsgoed

Figure 1

The temperature at Trawsgoed on the west coast of Wales has just shot up to 22.0°C at 07 UTC, just ahead of the cold front, and could end up setting a new highest maximum record temperature for the 16th of October, but this may well be exceeded further east later on of course. Here in mid-Devon, the yellowish sky which was very intense in the last hour, has just started to fade as the front tracks away northeast.

Hurricane Ophelia pushes warm air north over western Iberia

Figure 1

Ophelia is starting to feed some strong southerly winds and high temperatures northwards across Western Portugal and Northwest Spain late this morning, the temperature at Coimbra-Cernache in Portugal was 32.4°C at 11 UTC this morning (fig 1) which can’t be bad for mid-October.

Figure 2

October 2017 – very mild by night so far

The first two weeks of October have been very mild across the country, but not particularly by day, because day time maximum have remained close to average, but by night, where some places have seen minimum temperatures [18-06]  as much as 3°C above the long-term average (fig 1).

Figure 1

There have only been a few ground frosts across the British Isles so far this month, and those were mainly in the northeast and central Ireland (fig 2), it looks like it could be yet another mild Autumn the way things are going.

Figure 2

Incidentally, if you do find that I leave Scotland out of a map in any of my articles, please let me know and I will add one, it’s just that monitors favour landscape rather than portrait orientation, and when I zoom in to get extra detail,  something has to go.  As far as I know, I have just the one subscriber from the north of the border at the moment.

Super mild night for October

Figure 1

Temperatures across large parts of England and Wales never fell much below 16°C last night (fig 1). The broad warm sector has southwesterly winds which are feeding tropical northeastward from close to where category 2 Hurricane Ophelia is located (fig 2).

Figure 2 – Courtesy of the Met Office

 

What happened to the concrete min?

Figure 1

At a number of places there was a touch of ground frost this Friday morning (fig 2), nothing very unusual in this for early October, and although its measured with what’s called a grass minimum thermometer, it was never called a grass frost even though it’s usually over grass where the lowest temperature occurs and where a frost is most clearly visible. In my days as an observer, we always laid a thermometer on a paving slab and measured the concrete minimum, which was usually, but not always a wee bit higher that the grass minimum. I wonder if that’s still being done?

Figure 2

Warm and windy on the last day of the world

Figure 1

A lovely warm and windy 23rd of September across most parts of the British Isles this Saturday, on what could possibly be the day that planet X collides with planet Earth as some believe, and life as we know it comes to an abrupt end. In the meantime here in parts of Devon the temperature is hovering around 19°C at the moment, but Kinloss in Morayshire just pips that with 19.4°C at 12 UTC (fig 1). The south southeasterly winds are fresh to strong in western areas, and are gusting to 77 mph over the tops of the Cairngorms, and 52 mph at Benbecula on South Uist (fig 2).

Figure 2