I know I shouldn’t have tempted fate going on as I did about how warm it had been today. I wasn’t paying attention to the visible satellite image sequence this afternoon, but finally noticed the increasing cirrus and cumulus bubbling up over northwest Devon (fig 2). From the observations there’s certainly evidence of some kind of trough pushing into western areas of Wales and the southwest at 15 UTC, with a band of thick cirrus strung out along it. The increased humidity must have been enough to cause the convection, and if you look closer you’ll see a wind veer and increase in dewpoint, behind some small falls of […]
Some classic dumbbelling going on between these two lows in the latest forecast frames from the GFS model as they orbit around the British Isles during the next week. I would challenge any broadcast meteorologist to find anything good to say about the weather if these charts are accurate.
The cold air has dug back in behind the cold front at Baltasound, turning the rain to snow, as the low pressure whizzes across the Northern Isles. I wish someone would sort out that anemometer at Torshavn, I’m sure that the wind direction is the exact reciprocal of what it should be, it’s happened before, you just can’t trust those AWS.
The Met Office beat me to a story about extreme Easters of the past, but undaunted, and without the masses of climate data they have at their disposal, I pressed on with a bit of research of my own. Because Easter is not at a fixed time each year it’s difficult to compare one with another. Easter Sunday can fall as early as the 22nd of March or as late as the 25th of April. I’ve used the daily CET series from 1772 (now there’s a surprise), and calculated a five-day mean, from Maundy Thursday to Bank Holiday Monday to do my comparison with. Because of the time range that […]
I thought I would just do a full analysis of all the available SYNOP data for Candlemas, Thursday the 2nd of February 2017, to get the complete picture as far as maximum gusts were concerned, and what a complete farce it makes of the current warnings and named storm approach by the Met Office. As you can see from the ranked list of highest gust the 76 mph gusts from St Mary’s on the Scillies wasn’t in fact the highest across the British Isles, there was a gust of 83 mph at good old Capel Curig, and an even higher gust of 85 mph at South Uist range on […]
Warm air has pushed well into Southwest England behind the warm front by 15 UTC today, with dewpoints of 11 and 12°C following on behind. I must say that the 12 UTC German analysis (fig 2) is more preferable to the complicated 06 UTC analysis from the Met Office (fig 1): a frontogenetic (?) warm front, followed by another warm front and warm sector, with yet another inner frontal system and warm sector pushing into Iberia. Just guessing about the cold front, it may well be a lot further east than I’ve put it (fig 3), and the next frontal system is following along hard on its heels, judging […]
It’s thirty years today that the cold spell of January 1987 started in earnest, so I thought that I’d put a piece together with my recollection of it scant as they are. It’s a shame that things like the Internet, WordPress and digital photography weren’t around back then otherwise I wouldn’t have needed to bother… I remember Monday the 12th of January 1987 quite distinctly. I was due on a 12 hour day shift at RAF Binbrook that started at 8 am, so I usually left home around 7.30 AM to get there in the car. There maybe was 10 cm of snow on the roads in Louth where […]
The Bora is a cold, dry gusty north or northeasterly downslope wind that affects (according to Roger Barry in Mountain Weather and Climate) the eastern shore of the Adriatic from Trieste in the north of Italy southward down the eastern shore of the Adriatic for about 500 km. It’s the big brother to the Helm wind of Cross Fell in this country, and this morning it’s going at it hammer and tongues. There is an interesting Wikipedia article about it that gives a lot more information. Here’s the 09 UTC plotted chart (fig 1) for this morning for the Adriatic area. Here is the latest gust analysis for the […]
It was handy for Desenzano del Garda in Lombardy Italy that the fresh to strong north northeasterly wind just kept blowing and that they’re situated at the southern end of Lake Garda, because it did a great job at keeping a severe frost at bay (pardon the pun) last night. I think it’s a good bet that the water temperature of Lake Garda is well above 5°C at the moment, and no wonder that lemon tree’s do so well around the lake. This is the difference that just 30 kilometres or so makes in the thermograms from Desenzano and Brescia for last night.
I was just comparing today’s weather situation with that of the 1st of June 1954 (as you do) and noticed just how similar they were. Having said that if you look at the temperatures 2016 does look a good deal warmer than 1954 was.