A big thermal contrast across our part of the world today, with the temperature at Gravesend as high as 16.1°C at 12 UTC, but only around 3°C across the North of Scotland. I couldn’t resist doodling on the 12 UTC chart and overlaying the approximate positions of the frontal systems (fig 2), don’t worry if it looks far too simple, I’m sure that it’s a lot more complicated that, or should I say it will be in the Met Office analysis.
Low Peter IV has brought strong winds across Denmark and snow to parts of southern Sweden overnight (fig 1). It’s the first time that I’ve seen the Berlin Institute of Meteorology have multiple versions of the same vortex (fig 2), whoever sponsored Peter hit the jackpot with that name.
We seem to be a bit left out of it when it comes to extratropical lows at the moment, with developments taking place just before they get here in mid-Atlantic, or just as they leave to the east of the meridian. This week things look set to change, across the British Isles because it’s looking decidedly mobile and cyclonic in the coming week according to the latest run of the GFS model (fig 3). It looks like it could also be quite wintry in the north of Scotland if they manages to keep in the cold air, and there’s a touch of northerly in the chart for next Sunday to keep my idea of a weekly cycle in northerlies going!
Here are the 12 UTC temperature anomalies for 12 UTC on the 12th of November (fig 1) and it’s a cold day everywhere, especially the further east and north that you are. Temperature anomalies are generally in the range 2 to 4°C below the 1981-2010 long-term average for 12 UTC on the 12th of November. But the weather is bright enough away from the east coast and the far southwest, where showers have continued in the fresh or strong N’NW wind.
Meanwhile low Numa continues to track SE and deepen across the south of Germany (fig 2). There’s quite an area of snow developed now in the cold air to the north of the low, I should imagine the Alps are in for a pasting in the next 12 hours.
I don’t know how long it will persist for, but there’s some interesting line convection (squall line) associated with the cold front that’s just clearing the extreme west of Wales and Cornwall first thing this morning.
October 2017 ended up being quite an interesting month weather-wise across the British Isles as these satellite images and weather charts atest. It’s a shame that the satellite images are for 12 UTC and the UKMO analysis are for 00 UTC and don’t synch, but the 00 UTC chart is the one that Wetterzentrale archive.
As expected low Herwart did bring exceptionally strong winds and coastal gales to much of southern Norway, Denmark, Northern Germany and the Dutch coast overnight (fig 1).
The strongest winds seemed to have been in the German Bight and particularly the Alte Weser lighthouse, where winds got up to violent storm force 11 with gusts to 89 mph at 06 UTC this morning (fig 2).
You have to admit that the Germans did a proper job when they built the Alte Weser lighthouse which sits at the mouth of the Weser estuary, it still looks as elegant and modern now as it did back in the 1960’s when it was built (fig 3). Just for completeness here’s the plotted chart for 06 UTC this morning for that part of the world (fig 4). It certainly would have been an interesting situation if it had occurred in December.
The drier air that’s outflowing from the large anticyclone that’s sat across southern Germany and Austria, is migrating its way slowly northwestward from France and across the English Channel today (fig 1). Unfortunately it looks like it will be a little too late to bring sunny skies for here in mid-Devon, but it does herald a much sunnier day across the bulk on England and Wales tomorrow. Here are the streamlines for 12 UTC across the south (fig 2).
Temperatures across large parts of England and Wales never fell much below 16°C last night (fig 1). The broad warm sector has southwesterly winds which are feeding tropical northeastward from close to where category 2 Hurricane Ophelia is located (fig 2).
Northwest severe gale force nine to storm ten along the Dutch Coast and soon across the German Bight. as storm Xavier rushes across northern Germany this morning and still deepening quite rapidly.
There’s an interesting article in this months Weather magazine (September 2017) about a severe thunderstorm that occurred over East Devon over 20 years ago. I can add little to the article except a plotted chart for 18 UTC on the 7th of August 1997 (fig 1). Unfortunately my records don’t list any observations from Exeter airport which might have been of interest. At first I thought the article was about the severe hail storm that left hail a foot deep in Ottery St Mary, but after a quick Google, I realised that this was a totally different event that had occurred on the 30th of October 2008 and not in 1997.
It’s always good to see an article about some weather event that happened in the UK, but it’s strange that it took all this time before it got a mention in the Weather Magazine. Anyway, here are the streamlines that accompany the contoured chart for what they are worth (fig 2).