Unusual medium level shower activity…

Figure 1

I’m probably going to shoot myself in the foot with this one, but it looks to me, and I could be wrong, like much of the precipitation that’s been showing up on this afternoon’s weather radar, especially the belt that stretches across central England is from medium level unstable castellanus cloud, and is producing nothing more than the odd shower. There are some brighter echoes within, and the observing network is pretty thin so it could be falling between the gaps, but I see very few reports of any significant rain or thunderstorms from it.

Figure 2

Here’s the latest visible image (fig 3) that shows the band very well.

Figure 3

The rainfall over western Scotland looks even more dramatic, and this is thundery in nature (fig 4), although the rainfall indicated in the weather radar image looks very intense, it also seems to have escaped the observing network so far.

Figure 4 – Courtesy of Blitzortung

Interestingly, the current Met Office warning that is in force for heavy thundery rain this afternoon, completely omits the west and north of Scotland (fig 5)!

Figure 5 – Courtesy of the Met Office

 

A perfect summer’s day…

Figure 1

I realise it’s not the same thing as UV, but the hourly solar radiation figures in the SYNOP reports do give you a very good idea of the sun’s strength at the moment, which is extremely strong across most areas. I know that down here in Devon, I’m starting to burn in less than 5 minutes sat out in it. It’s a funny thing, you wait patiently for the first hot sunny summers day to arrive, but then when it does, you have to hide from the sun.

Figure 2

The fair weather cumulus across East Anglia, has pegged solar radiation values down there a touch (fig 2), but in many other places it’s well in excess of 3000 kJ/m² (fig 1) this lunchtime.

Figure 3

The usual culprits are at the top of warmest places from the SYNOPs, but Exeter is doing quite well with 25.9°C at 13 UTC. It’s almost 4 degrees warmer than that here, about 8 km to the north of the airport, but my Vantage Pro is far too well sheltered, and at the moment is covered in splashes of Ambre Solaire.

The named storms of 2016-17

I know that there were only five named storms in the 2016-17 season, and one of them was aka as the ‘Irish Storm’, so which one is the odd man out?

Angus 20 November 2016
Barbara 23 – 24 December 2016
Conor 25 – 26 December 2016
Doris 23 February 2017
Ewan 26 February 2017 (Ireland)

Another breezy day across the country

Figure 1

Another breezy day across the country, bright in the south and with an unusual band of cloud in the visible satellite image, its aligned SW-NE and stretches from Cornwall, through Dorset, and into Norfolk. There are some showers associated with it across south Devon, but none elsewhere.

Figure 2

It’s not too different to a similar band that developed on Thursday and stretched from Cornwall NE with a line of heavy showers along it. There’s obviously some kind of geo-thermal hot spot over Cornwall that’s triggered the convection in both events…

Figure 3 – 1445 UTC 8 June 2017

 

Find the cold front

There’s plenty of orographic rainfall evident in the warm sector across the southwest of England and Wales in this morning’s 0815 UTC weather radar image (fig 1), but you would be hard pushed to find a cold front in the Celtic sea between here and SW Ireland on it though. This reminds me of an almost identical situation that occurred earlier this week.

Figure 1

The cold front is well-marked by the cloud in the visible satellite image (fig 2), it’s just not producing any precipitation at the moment.

Figure 2

Figure 3 – Courtesy of the Met Office

Ingraban continues to play havoc with flaming June

Figure 1

Large 24 hour rainfall totals have been recorded across the northeast of both England and Scotland in the last 24 hours ending 06 UTC, and it’s still raining in Northeast Scotland. There is the odd white pixels in my estimates from the weather radar south of Nairn, which indicate accumulations in excess of 150 mm (fig 1), so I expect that the rivers Spey, Findhorn and Nairn are all now in full spate after the deluge of the last 36 hours. Wettest from the observations was Loftus in North Yorkshire, with 58.2 mm in the 24 hours (fig 2), Edinburgh wasn’t far behind with 48.6 mm.

Figure 2

The inset observation grid are the last 24 hours observations from Lossiemouth, overlaid on a map of 24 hour rainfall totals (fig 3).

Figure 3

The heavy rain brought down the freezing level overnight as well, so the very tops of the Cairngorms could have seen some of this rain fall as snow, that combined with a 50 knot mean northwesterly might put a hold on your plans to knock of a few Munros in the area today (fig 4). The Met Office were too frit to call this storm Fleur, but the Berlin Meteorological Institute ended up naming this particular vortex Ingraban, either way this vortex continues to play havoc with flaming June.

Figure 4

I see the upper cloud from the next feature as got well into Ireland now (fig 5), and looking at the forecast from the GFS model, it looks like Thursday and Saturday will be wet again, in many areas, particularly the further northwest that you are in the country. After the weekend though, things look like they start to settle down, and next week we may well see the return of flaming June.

Figure 5

May 2017 from space

Wall to wall blue skies… well almost

Figure 1 – Courtesy of the Met office and EUMETSAT

Almost wall to wall blue skies across the country today (fig 1), oh how I do hate that particular cliché, but when you need a title it’s any port in a storm. I noticed the southeasterly has started to level out the temperatures across the southeast in the last hour (fig 2). The cumulus that’s bubbled up across a large part of the Midlands is also affecting temperatures across central England. This has given the north of Scotland a chance to catch up with places live Aviemore and Aboyne getting some shelter from the Grampian already around 25°C or more.

Figure 2

I expect to see Kinloss and Lossiemouth warm up quickly this afternoon, once that is they’ve lost the sea breeze that’s kept temperatures pegged down this morning. Spare a thought for the people on Fair Isle with a 12 UTC temperature of 11.3°C though, it’s much warmer than that on top of the Cairngorms at the moment (15.3°C).

Figure 3

Sea of fog

Snaefell on the Isle of Man, stands out in a sea of fog that covers the northern half of the Irish Sea this morning, as it should do, after all it is 2,037 feet high. Also standing out clear from the fog are the Lakeland fells over Cumbria.

Figure 1

This is the closest that I can get to a view from above the fog, from a webcam near the top of Snaefell. The sea fog in this part of the world was well forecast by the Met Office model yesterday, although the fog in the English Channel that they expected, didn’t materialise.

22 May 2017 – Mesoscale trough?

Figure 1

I know I shouldn’t have tempted fate going on as I did about how warm it had been today. I wasn’t paying attention to the visible satellite image sequence this afternoon, but finally noticed the increasing cirrus and cumulus bubbling up over northwest Devon (fig 2). From the observations there’s certainly evidence of some kind of trough pushing into western areas of Wales and the southwest at 15 UTC, with a band of thick cirrus strung out along it. The increased humidity must have been enough to cause the convection, and if you look closer you’ll see a wind veer and increase in dewpoint, behind some small falls of pressure over East Wales (fig 1). It could all simply be down to a southward extension to the first of two occlusions that the Met Office are showing in their 06 UTC analysis (fig 3), but it’s certainly put paid to what had been a lovely afternoon here in south Devon till then.

Figure 2

Figure 3 – Courtesy of the Met Office