New Antarctic lowest maximum sea ice extent likely

The Antarctic sea ice extent has staged a recovery since the lowest minimum of just over 2 million square kilometers occurred on the 1st of March, but despite that recovery, it still heads the lowest extent for the 30th of June, with only 93.3% of the average for that day (figs 1 & 2). My simple way of extrapolating the curve to detect the amount and the date of the maximum extent, shows that the maximum will fall well below the 18 million square kilometer mark (~17.6), and 2017 looks likely to see a new lowest maximum, to complement the lowest minimum of the Spring. Here’s the plotted projection […]

A night to remember – 14/15 April 1912

The RMS Titanic sank in the early hours of Monday the 15th of April 1912, after striking an iceberg at 11.40 am on the previous evening. The exact date and time it struck the iceberg fixes the time of the disaster, which depends on which time zone that you use. If you get a chance, I read a short but fascinating article about the disaster on the Encyclopedia Britannica web site. There is so much written about the event that there are literally hundreds of articles available on the Internet. Wikipedia, as you would expect has a complete and detailed report about it, 10 things you might not know […]

Would you like ice with that?

Apologies for taking another news item from the BBC website and just sticking it in my blog, but I found this particular news item just too interesting to resist, and the looks well written with ne’er a mention of global warming in it, unlike their continued propaganda campaign against President elect Donald Trump and his take on possible Russian hacking in the recent US election campaign, on their rolling news service on TV

Tropical Arctic

Here’s a chart of temperature anomalies that I’ve calculated from the NCEP reanalysis data for the first 24 days of November 2016 for the Arctic region. And again, it’s showing massive positive temperature anomalies across the board, it’s no wonder that the sea ice is struggling to increase in extent this Autumn in the Arctic. Below is a bar chart of temperature anomalies for the grid point at 77°30’N and 15° E (close to Ny-Ålesund on the Island of Jan Mayen), and as you can see they have been generally between +5°C and +10°C for much of the time since September 2016. Obviously there is a lot of warm air […]

Recent global temperature anomalies

The relative warm temperatures across the pole are well illustrated in this anomaly chart for the week 4 November to 10 November 2016, as is the very cold Scandinavia and NE Russia. Unusually the temperatures across the central Atlantic are well above average despite the SST still being below average. It’s no wonder that the Arctic sea ice is still tracking -19.5% below average for the 11th of November. The Antarctic also shows some large positive anomalies in the interior and the Ross Sea for the first 10 days of November. Treat these contours with some caution because I’ve only just started to contour on a spherical projection and […]

Extreme cold winters fuelled by jet stream and climate change

Yet another news item in the Guardian and other similar media outlets about more scientists doing some airy-fairy research this time into what role the jet stream plays in the winters of the UK and the eastern United States. Of course it’s only available to download and read from the Journal Nature Climate Change for the sum of $32. Why, if the research is so important does it cost so much, or cost anything for that matter? I know a couple of outfits that will buy it, and they are the Daily Mail and the Daily Express, and they’ll make good use of the research and build a story […]

Animated sea ice

I’ve added some code to my Sea Ice application to download the sea ice extent images from the National Snow and Ice Data Center [NSIDC] and then put them together to create an animated GIF of the year to year changes in the ice extent in the months of March and September of each year since 1979, for both the Arctic and Antarctic. Apart from the first one, I may have not quite got the animation speed quite right as they appear a little on the quick side to me. I think animated GIF’s are terrific. They are easy to put together, which is good for me as a […]

Fourth shortest melt season in Arctic

Rather bizarrely the melt season in the Arctic was the fourth shortest in the Sea Ice data series that started in 1979. As you can see from the above chart, the melt started on March 21st of this year and ended on the 7th of September, which made the melt season 169 days long, the shortest since the 166 days of 1997. The short season is down not just to a very late maximum, but also an early minimum, but why that should occur in a season that saw the second lowest maximum is slightly puzzling.  The spring maximum was 13 days later than average, and the autumn minimum […]

Crash and early maximum in Antarctic sea ice – maybe?

All the focus recently has been on the Arctic sea ice minimum, but the real news to my mind is in the Antarctic, where a recent late crash in sea ice extent has brought forward the date of maximum extent (18.518 million square kilometres [MSK]) for 2016 to the 28th of August, possibly the earliest maximum in the record that began in 1979. The sea ice extent has fallen from the probable maximum on the 28th of August when it stood at almost +1 standard deviation [SD] above the mean, to now very close to -2 SD below the average. I don’t think it’s likely that it can make this […]