This weeks explosive cyclogenesis

Another cyclogenetic episode this week as it looks quite likely that storm Fionn will rush eastward across central Scotland from the Atlantic at around 60 knots if the latest forecast from the GFS is correct. If I’ve done my calculations right, the low will have moved 2,678 km and deepened by 36 hPa in the 24 hours ending  at 06 UTC on Thursday – so it’s not hanging around! From the only relevant forecast chart I can find from the Met Office (fig 2), it looks like they track the low further south at 52° rather than 56° north, which I can only imagine would impact even more of […]

Monday looking reminiscent of the Christmas day snowstorm 1927

The snow threat on Sunday now looks likely to be restricted to the north of Wales, the Northwest of England, the north Midlands and Yorkshire, as an occlusion sweeps across southern England and stalls as it pushes up against colder air further north. The probability of snow might have been even higher if it happened during the night, but from the look of it this will be enough to close the Woodhead and Snake pass. It’s certainly a complicated looking cyclonic picture on Sunday as an elongated trough develops, and stretches out across central England. Two separate low centres form, one of them continues eastward into Northern Germany the […]

Something for the weekend

The latest run of the GFS model (fig 1) has sided with the UKMO model (fig 2) and decided not intensify the low that runs across Central England on Saturday. It still looks a thoroughly wet day though, especially across the west of Wales and the southwest of England though, with a westerly gale along the English Channel, if this latest forecast is correct (fig 1). Sunday looks a windy day with strong northwesterly winds particularly down the east coast of England and Scotland, with wintry showers down to quite low levels in the northeast of Scotland I would fancy. I wonder if the enhanced troughing in the GFS […]