This is the forecast for Tuesday next week, and the long forecast easterly might well stick around till this weekend, but after that according to both the GFS and the ECMWF models, the brief anticyclonic spell is quickly swept away by a return to a zonal westerly flow. The anticyclonic nature of the last three months interrupted by a mid-month cyclonic spell, seems to have happened in both November and December, and looks forecast to occur again in January.
The other two main NWP models don’t seem to have latched onto the developing low that is forecast to run up the Channel as enthusiastically as the Met Office model seems to have. Although it’s impossible to verify what the latest NWP from the boys in Exeter is showing, as they do keep it so very private, all I can rely is their good old fax chart T+48 chart. The main BBC Weather at 6.25 PM still seem to be running a different model to the one that David Braine used tonight on the SouthWest Spotlight weather at 6.55 PM which also intrigues me. Everyone of the presenters, and I’ve now seem to be trying to either ignore or contradict the alert which the Met Office issued earlier. Is there some kind of mutiny going on now that they all work for the BBC I wonder?
The GFS (fig 2) has a barely discernible centre that’s much further east and north than the Met Office forecast position.
It’s fair to say that the ECMWF model (fig 3) doesn’t even acknowledge its existence!
The ECMWF now also seem to be going for a cold northerly early in the New Year as was the GFS model yesterday. But I notice that in the latest GFS run they seem to have backed off on the northerly scenario and made it more of a glancing northwesterly and delayed it by 36 hours in comparison – something wrongs in the state of Denmark with these two solutions methinks.
The polar vortex is on the move again and is forecast to swing southeastward toward the northeast states of America during this coming week. Below is the forecast frame for Friday from the ECMWF.
Meanwhile on the other side of the Atlantic the forecast chart looks a lot more benign and certainly a good deal milder.