How many named storms can you remember? It’s a simple enough question and the scheme has been running for three years now so you should at least remember a couple. I can’t, but then again I’ve a dreadful memory, but you would have thought after writing an analysis on all twenty-three of them as I’ve done, I would have remembered at least one.
Storm Georgina although it deepened explosively was just another failure in my opinion, another storm to forget, and again it was named by Met Éireann. Full marks to the Met Office for staying clear of this one. Met Éireann seem to be specialising in naming just about anything that comes their way at the moment, I suppose someone has to name them, and I’m sure if it hadn’t been them the French or maybe the Norwegians would have stepped in to do the honours.
Here’s an analysis of the top twenty or so peak gust from storm Georgina of Beaufort force 10 or higher, storm force gusts are an essential requirement of any reputable storm in my opinion, plus of course the obligatory vortex (fig 1).
The highest gust from a low-level land station was one to 85 mph at Benbecula on South Uist, the highest at all stations in WMO block #03 was the gust to 117 mph at the Bealach Na Ba on the road to Applecross in Wester Ross (fig 2). Interestingly the maximum gust across the Irish Republic was just 65 mph at Belmullet.
So much for storm naming – what about the warning?
I found it odd that there was just a single yellow warning issued for storm Georgina by the Met Office, and that covered just the Northwest of Scotland. Although the warning of gusts 50-60 occasionally 70-80 was very precise (as long as you weren’t driving to Applecross) the area of extent was far too limited. No warning were issued for the rest of Scotland, England or Wales, even though there have been gusts today of 83 mph at places such as Capel Curig and 70 mph on Emley Moor.
What difference is there for example, between the gust of 62 mph at Stornoway, in the yellow warning area, and the gust of 64 mph at Farnborough and not in the yellow warnings area? The chances of a slate being blown of a roof would be similar, but the difference in population would make the chances of it happening far greater at Farnborough.
In the table (fig 1) I’ve highlighted the stations that weren’t covered by the yellow warning, and as you can see they form the greater proportion of places that had storm force gusts. I don’t know, and can’t understand why a yellow warning wasn’t issued yesterday, when the GFS model correctly forecast peak gusts of 55 to 65 mph and occasionally higher for today. The Met Office needs to find some consistency in the thresholds they use in issuing warnings for strong wind, because I can’t see any logic in how they do it at the moment.