Angus – the wind

I may be running this analysis a little bit too early because I’ve just noticed that the strongest winds from Angus maybe occurring right now (09Z) in the southern North sea but what the hell, I’m sure my 19 subscribers won’t mind in the slightest.

wind-analysis-1000-utc-on-19-november-0900-utc-on-20-november-2016And if you don’t like maps here it is in ranked and tabulated :

tabulated-wind-analysis-1000-utc-on-19-november-0900-utc-on-20-november-2016So, from what I can see there has been no inland gales (on low ground) apart from Culdrose which is a little set back from the coast. The Channel Isles took a bit of a battering with a mean speed of 46 knots (53 mph) and a gust to 73 knots (84 mph) at Guernsey airport at 03Z. The real core of the high winds though with Angus ran down the entire length of the English Channel. The three weather buoys in the eastern channel give an idea of the strength of the winds with a gust of 92 knots (106 mph) at 62170 at 09z, and a mean speed of 65 knots (75 mph and hurricane force 12) at 62305 at 07z.

The above list is not definitive by any means, as the Met Office have access to many other weather stations that I’m not privy to. These values are probably enough to justify the warnings that the Met Office issued yesterday morning, if not, I’m sure that they will be using values from the Needles in their defence as they so often do.

It’s official – it’s not Angus!

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Courtesy of the Met Office

The Met Office have finally made a decision about the fate of this weekends vigorous low which is set to bring 20-30 mm of rain and a southwesterly gale to the southeast of the country. They feel that both these factors don’t add up to a significant enough impact for the low to be Christened Angus the “one”.

I get the feeling that unlike last year when they gave names to any number of extratropical cyclones that brushed up against the northwest of the country, this year they seem more reluctant to name any low that’s not forecast to be less than 960 hPa and impact an entire country, in fact it’s a bit like the time before that “name-that-storm” came along when names just seemed to spring out of the ether in retrospect.

The Chief Forecaster has left a get out clause embedded at the end of the warning, or should that be a get out paragraph: “There remains some uncertainty about the exact track of the weather system and therefore the northward extent of any impacts” – we will see.

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Courtesy of the Met Office

Just to remind you what a real storm looks like, here’s a plotted chart of Katie from the 28th March 2016. This weekend storm is forecast to take a similar track to that of Katie, which was of the few named storms that did make landfall last season.

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Here’s this morning’s forecast chart from the Met Office:

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Courtesy of the Met Office

Worst of the winds in the channel – shades of 1987?

Courtesy of the BBC

I’ve already blogged this morning about how the Met Office seem to be prevaricating about what will happen with this weekend’s low pressure. Well the prevarication is over and they’ve just announced – courtesy of John Hammond in the 12.57 PM BBC forecast – that the strongest of the winds will stay in the English channel – well probably!

According to the Met Office the strongest winds should be here…

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Courtesy of the BBC

Or less likely they could be here…

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Courtesy of the BBC

It’s a bit like the old joke “I used to indecisive, but now I’m not so sure”. You can’t help but draw parallels with the situation on the 15th of October 1987 and on Sunday the 20th of November 2016 (I always said there was 29 year cycle), when Michael Fish just a few hours before the storm broke, issued these wonderful immortal words: “Earlier on today, apparently, a woman rang the BBC and said she heard there was a hurricane on the way… well, if you’re watching, don’t worry, there isn’t!“. That evening as most of you will know the worst storm to hit the southeast of England for many years caused record damage and killed 19 people. Forgive me as soon as I see charts with arrows on I can’t help  but think of Dad’s Army!

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Courtesy of the BBC

And because named storms depend on having what they call multiple “impacts”, this looks like it won’t be a named storm either by the looks of things.  It does make you wonder since they are about to lose the BBC contract just how the Met Office in the future will get these kind of pontifications across to the general public – twitter, Facebook the ITV?

Below is the latest T+72 forecast chart from the ECMWF. Frustratingly they only produces images for the whole of Europe and the North Atlantic and just in 24 hour time steps – come on get real – Brexit has not officially started, and we still pay for this service and we can’t even zoom into different regions of Europe. Having got that off my chest – that chart does seem to support that the strongest gradient will run over northern France, so maybe they’ll be right – time will tell.

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Courtesy of ECMWF

With gusts to 73 knots at Shawbury – who needs storm Angus?

A gust to 73 knots (84 mph) that has just occurred at Shawbury is quite high for an inland station. It occurred on a sharp trough as it passed the station in the preceding hour. As you can see it’s a fairly windy day across most of the west with some gusts to gale force.

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The Met Office may have had a warning for storm force gusts in force earlier in the day for Shropshire, but not when I just looked.

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