A correlation between El Niño and global CO2

It was only when I read the Met Office news release “La Niña cools 2018 CO₂ forecast” that it occurred to me that there might be a link between ENSO events in the central Pacific Ocean and global CO2 measured at nearby Mauna Loa. So today I cobbled together a hybrid application made up of code from my ENSO and CO2 programs to plot charts of both of them to see what I can find, never really expecting to see very much in the way of a link, I was wrong. In the above image (fig 1) the top chart is of the 12 monthly change in global CO2 measured at Mauna Loa, […]

Guardian: The BBC apologise for Lawson – but did he just get muddled up?

There’s no doubt that global surface temperatures have been on the rise. There may have been a slight pause while it caught its breath in 2011 & 2012, but with the help of a record ENSO event in 2015, the linear trend for the last 10 years is almost +0.4°C per decade in the CRUTEM4 series (fig 2). The American GISS data shows a slightly higher linear trend for the last 10 years of +0.429°C (fig 3). So Nigel Lawson was wrong big time about global data for the last ten years, he thought the pause had been continuing, and refused to look at the latest temperature data. But […]

BBC News: Switzerland landslide: Are the Alps melting?

Well are the Alps melting as Imogen Foulkes is proposing in her article? Well with the help of the trusty temperature statistics that lie* behind the CRUTEM4 global land temperature series that I’ve downloaded from the Met Office, I thought that I would investigate. Here are a couple of graphs from near the top of the Säntis mountain in northeast Switzerland at a height of 2,490 M (8,169 feet), where the mean annual temperature is -1.9°C, and there may well be some permafrost if you can find any soil to freeze. As you can see from the trend of the annual mean temperature things have been on the warm […]

Summers in Central England since 1659

It’s quite a number of years since we have had a really warm Summer [JJA]. The last very warm one was the summer of 2006 which ranked #4 warmest in the series (fig 2), and before that summer 2003, which ranked joint third warmest, perhaps we’ve been spoiled in recent years, and are taking it for granted that every summer will end up being warm or very warm. Summers have become slightly warmer during the last 358 years in Central England (fig 3), but not so much that you would notice. They have crept up by around +0.36°C in that time, which is almost exactly +0.01°C a decade, if […]

The relationship between volcanoes and Central England Temperature in recent years

  Now that I’ve discovered the VEI database from the NCEI, I can now overlay volcanic eruption events on top of the monthly CET anomalies and chart the results. In the above chart (fig 2) I’ve overlaid all the VEI 4 events or greater from 1980, and was surprised to find that there seemed little in the way of correlation between them. The Pinatubo eruption of the 15th of June 1991 for example was the first VEI 6 event since Tambora in 1815 (fig 1), and lifted more than 5 cubic kilometres of material 25 miles straight up into the stratosphere, coincidentally a typhoon that was passing close by […]

Global temperatures drop back

The 12 month moving average of Global temperatures has fallen back in the last few months, after climbing quite sharply for the last four years or so. I’ve included a plot of both the CRUTEM4 and GISS monthly series as you can see (fig 1). I like to use a 12 month moving average because it’s a simple way of removing any seasonality, I’ve added a linear trend for both even though it’s probably not correct or in any way scientific. The linear trends are not aligned because the Americans use the 1961-1990 long-term averages to calculate their anomalies, whilst the British in their wisdom still use the 1951-1980 […]

Lies, damned lies, and CET

I borrowed my title of course from the great Mark Twain and gave it a twist that only a blogger trying to attract new readers can come up with. But it’s basically true, you can look at any set of data and view it in such a light statically, that you can use it to prove that global warming is a reality even in Central England, or the complete opposite and prove that we are entering a new ice age. I’ve been playing around CET ever since I copied the entire monthly catalog into a program that I had written for my BBC B Computer in 1983, and I […]