Weak weekly cycle in Central England

Regular readers of this blog will know that I’ve been boring them with an approximate weekly cycle of northerly outbreaks occurring each Sunday for the last four weeks (fig 1).

Figure 1 – Courtesy of the Met Office

I thought that I would take a look at the provisional daily CET anomalies to see if I could pick out the cycle in it, which if you squint your eyes a bit, you can just about make out in the mean anomalies (fig 2).

Figure 2 – Last 3 months daily CET anomalies

Looking at the latest forecast for Sunday, it looks like the cycle may be struggling to manage to produce a NW, so that might be the end of another bright idea of mine!

A cycle of northerly Sundays

Figure 1

If you examine the forecast chart for tomorrow and next Sunday, you might be forgiven for thinking there is something of a weekly cycle going on here (fig 1), both days are northerly, in fact next Sunday is a cyclonic northerly worthy of any cold spell in winter worth it’s salt. And if you look back over the last two weeks (fig 2), you’ll notice that both the 29th of October and the 5th of November had northerly tendencies too.

Figure 2 – Courtesy of the Met Office

Of course it’s all just chance, but just out of scientific curiosity, I’ll be keeping a close eye on the weather pattern for next Sunday, just to see if we can manage four successive northerly Sunday’s.

  • 29th October [N]
  • 5th November [N/NW]
  • 12th November [N] (forecast T+24 but odds on)
  • 19th November [CN] (forecast T+192)