It’s such a beautiful start to the day down here in Devon; with the old moon towards the east high above Venus; it’s a shame that it’s going to rain!
Well that’s what the latest GFS model says (fig 2), it’s a strange finger like feature, that eventually extends northeast to spread a spell of rain across the entire southeast of the country.
I hope the Telegraph don’t mind, but I had to copy this story of theirs about an Asteroid with the catchy name of 2012 TC4, which unknown to the vast majority of the world’s population of 7,573,647,666*, passed quite close to the earth this morning at around 0542 UTC. I feel that the story quite neatly dovetails in with that of the previous one about hurricane Ophelia. I haven’t watched the news on TV today, so hopefully 2012 TC4, which is travelling at close to 30,000 mph according to the EarthSky.org did keep its distance 30,000 miles above Antarctica as is predicted.
*The estimate of 7,573,647,666 was for 1100 UTC on the 12 October 2017.
Here’ an additional chart (fig 1) that compares Total Solar Irradiance [TSI] and the CRUTEM4 global temperature series since 1850, to use in comparison with the climate graphs that I published yesterday for mean temperatures in the UK since 1910-2016. The TSI data is still missing for last year, it’s also a bit crude as it’s an annual rather than a monthly value. Don’t ask me why the TSI values are so crude, especially now in the 21st century, it’s probably because the reconstructed series predates the monthly CET and starts in 1610 (todo: develop a CET/TSI comparison graph back to 1659). As you can see that TSI is strongly correlated with the sunspot cycle which I wrote an article about the other day.
Figure 1 – Courtesy of the SIDC
I was just looking back at the sunspot count during 2016 to see how Solar cycle 24 was doing. Solar cycle 24, is the 24th solar cycle since 1755 and it started in 2008, and there has always been a tremendous debate about just how intense it would be which is well described in the Wikipedia article about it. Suffice it to say, it’s looking like it’s the weakest 11 year sunspot cycle in over 100 years, and has prompted discussion that the Sun might be entering a ‘Maunder’ minimum phase as it did between 1645 and 1715. Anyway this is a chart (fig 2) of the last three cycles using the latest available SIDC data.
Figure 2 – Data courtesy of the SIDC
This chart is a close-up of cycle 24 (fig 3):
Figure 3 – Data courtesy of the SIDC
As you can see there are around three years to the end of cycle 24 sometime in 2019, and it’s already declined significantly. There were 32 ‘spotless’ days in 2016, and things are looking terminal for cycle 24. Even in today’s image of the solar disk (fig 1), there are only a couple of groups of spots on the eastern limb.
So what does this mean for global temperatures if anything?
Well the maximum of cycle 24 occurred coincidentally at a time of record high global temperatures both on land, and at sea, and at a time of declining Arctic sea ice, and also at the same time one of the strongest (if not the strongest) El Nino event was recorded. As far as I’m aware cycle 24 is also coincident with low North Atlantic Hurricanes numbers, low Tornadic activity in North America, and the collapse of the QBO last year, please correct me if I’m wrong in any of those statements, due to my poor memory I may well be! All of course as I say are totally coincidental, but I for one would like to think that we are on the verge of a new Maunder minimum, which would counter the recent increases in global temperatures, but that’s a long-shot, and far too early to tell.
Figure 4 – Data courtesy of the SIDC
9 May 2016 1445 UTC (courtesy of NASA)
It would have been nice to see Mercury transiting across the face of the sun but the cloud wasn’t playing ball in our part of the world.
9 May 2016 1445 UTC (courtesy of NASA)