I notice that the latest Arctic sea ice extent for the 14th of May was only the fifth lowest for that particular day of the year, which means it’s staged a late spring fight back from a disappointingly low maximum in early March. Having said that, although it’s higher than last year at the same date, it’s still lower than the record low year of 2012.
I have revised my estimated September minimum up from 3.7 to 3.9 million square kilometres of sea ice. This doesn’t come close to breaking the lowest ever minimum of 3.34 million, which occurred on the 16th of September 2012. If the sea ice pundits are correct though, the pack ice has never been thinner and the Arctic could see an unprecedented collapse in sea ice this summer – we shall see how right they are in around four months time.
Figure 2 (yellow outlined series is my estimate)
The recent cold weather seems to have cancelled out the earlier warmth in the month of April, because temperature anomalies up until the 23rd are quite close to average across most of Europe, although Iberia has been unusually warm. The Arctic has been its exceptional mild self once again, and is probably one of the reasons why this recent ‘Arctic blast’ has been so relatively innocuous.
I’ve just been projecting forward the sea ice extent using the statistics the data that I download from the NSIDC. I’ve used the rate of change of the 10th percentile, and applied it from the 16th of April running forward (fig 1) to the extent on that day. If these projections are correct, I reckon that the Arctic summer minimum will be around 3.7 million square kilometres. This is the only the second time Arctic sea ice will have ever fallen under the 4 million level mark in the satellite series, that should happen at the start of September, which is what it almost managed to do last year. I’m sure a lot of people are looking at a much lower minimum, but the Arctic has put on a bit of extent this Winter, after suffering substantial losses during the run up to Christmas.
Rather more severe is the Antarctic projection for their upcoming Winter. I see the maximum at around 15.8 million square kilometres in the second week of September, the previous lowest maximum extent was 17.803 at the very start of the satellite series in 1978 (fig 2), so this figure is seriously low if it comes about. This year (the red line) will track much lower than 2017 (the black line), if anything the gap will widen between the two if anything, this is because up until the 28th of August last year the Antarctic was doing very well, with the extent slightly above average, but after that date the extent suddenly collapsed in September when it should really have been peaking. So I reckon that all eyes might be on the Antarctic this September, rather than the Arctic.
I will revisit these projections in September, it maybe by then, that I’ll have some serious egg to wash of my face, who knows my projections could end up being optimistic!
I will be the first to admit that what I’ve done is not scientific in any way, it’s just playing with the statistics of the last 40 years, but what the hell.
Figure 1 – Courtesy of the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
There’s a lot of fear and apprehension going about on the Internet about the current state of the polar sea ice extent. I’ve always kept a close eye on how it’s performing both in the Arctic and Antarctic over the past 5 years with the help of the NSIDC, certainly in the Antarctic sea ice has fluctuated wildly in the past few years, but in the Arctic it’s been more or less just down. The latest data for the 14th of April is at a record low for this time of the year (fig 2), but it’s only slightly worse than at the same time in 2007. Perhaps the quality of the ice cap in the Arctic is thinner that it has been in the past, and maybe once it reached a critical ‘thinness’, then the extent will just crash one of these summers.
I’ve added a curve fitting series to both graphs, rather than just my usual linear trend which doesn’t lend itself to the Antarctic data at all well. The Antarctic curve is showing signs of taking a nose dive at the moment, because of the massive decline in the sea ice extent in the last few seasons (fig 3).
This graph of the Arctic sea ice volume anomaly (fig 4) does lend itself to a linear trend. Perhaps PIOMAS is a better way of looking at sea ice extent than the SII is, I don’t really know.
And just to give the full perspective on my earlier graph of the Arctic sea ice extent.
Courtesy of ITV News
The title of this news item that I read this morning ‘Fears for Arctic after warmest winter on record‘ (courtesy of the ITV news) is a bit on the emotive side – personally I’m not at all worried at all about the future of the Arctic it’s not going anywhere – but it’s sea ice unfortunately is. Why is it when weather becomes news do we always have to send out a reporter to witness first hand what’s going on? I suppose a video of a boat in a fjord free of ice in early April is more striking than any graph or a satellite image.
Now that we’ve seen both the lowest Arctic sea ice maximum and the lowest Antarctic sea ice minimum records broken this year, the two big questions regarding Polar sea ice are:
- How low can the Arctic sea ice minimum get this summer?
- Can the Antarctic sea ice bounce back this winter after such a catastrophic melt in the summer?
The Arctic rallied towards the end of this Winter but the 14.447 still couldn’t quite match the previous lowest maximum of 14.554 million square kilometers set on 22nd of February 2015. So just by looking at the stats, it seems that this summer may push the minimum of 3.34 million square kilometers of September 16th 2012, but the minimum that year was abnormally low even for the Arctic, and may take some beating.
The Antarctic sea ice on the other hand is starting the year extremely low at 2.075 million square kilometers. It will be interesting to see if it can catch up, but that’s a tall order, and this winter we might see a record low maximum, the previous lowest maximum was 18.027 million square kilometers set on September 18th 1986.
The end of Arctic sea ice in summer is still a long way off as far as I can see. A simple linear trend on each years minima puts zero summer sea ice in 2066. I’ve tried another type of polynomial line fitting curve but I can’t extrapolate a forecast from that, so that’s my best guess at the moment.
Figure 1 – Courtesy of NCEP/NOAA
This chart (fig 1) is of six hourly temperatures (sigma 0.995) for the North Pole since the 1st of January 2017, and are from NCEP reanalysis data that I download from NOAA. You could say that it’s been kind of mild up there recently, but that would be a bit of an understatement. The anomalies I have calculated are with regard to the 1948-2014 long-term average. The location is one minute shy of latitude 90° north, because my map projection software has problems when I use it!
It’s make or break in the next couple of weeks for Arctic sea ice, the rally it’s been staging since the middle of January has faltered, but today’s value (4th March) is it’s maximum extent this season, and it’s now within 120,000 square kilometres of the lowest maximum year of 2014-15. Last years Arctic maximum occurred very late on the 21st of March, so there is still time for it to make up this shortfall.
Meanwhile in the Antarctic summer, I would say that we have now have seen the minimum ice extent this year (on the 1st of March), which as well as being the lowest in the series since 1978, was also the second latest minimum, the average date for that is the 20th of February. One thing the sea ice extent did manage was to stay above the 2 million square kilometre mark, but only just. It will be interesting to see if the sea ice extent continues to spiral down in the coming season or if it will manage to stage some kind of recovery.
Figure 1 – Data courtesy of NSIDC
For the first time since the 3rd of October last year, this Winter’s (2016-17) sea ice extent in the Arctic is higher than last seasons (2015-16), which is something of a minor miracle if you had last looked at the figures just after the New Year when the trace had flatlined (fig 1). In fact the latest total is less than 0.253 million square kilometres shy of the lowest maxima set in 2014-15. I make the average date that the maxima occurs in the Arctic is the 9th of March, so it still could be at least a couple of weeks away, and it may well be, that the Arctic is not going to go along with most people’s expectations of record low sea ice extents at both Poles this year.
Figure 2 – Data courtesy of NSIDC
Pardon me for my simplistic unscientific view on what’s go on, but perhaps the Arctic is not venting as much of its cold air south (fig 3), and is consolidating more deep cold air for itself, and allowing the sea ice to flourish this late in the season.
Figure 3 – Courtesy of ECMWF
Certainly last week’s incredible warm spell in Svalbard has come to an abrupt end, and temperatures there at the moment are as cold as anytime during this Winter (fig 4).
Figure 1 – Surface temperatures & wind (Courtesy of Earth)
As I reported on Monday, temperatures in the Arctic are continuing at 20°C or more above the average for this time in February. This is the fourth day that air temperatures have been held up above freezing at Svalbard airport, on an island that is 78° north and surrounded by seas in which the water temperature is close to or slightly below freezing, truly remarkable.
Figure 2 – Svalbard Airport
Figure 3 – Svalbard Airport