This afternoon’s rain across the southwest

Figure 1

A lovely solar halo this morning here in mid-Devon which is the old weather lore precursor for rain in 6 to 9 hours, so I’m curious about just how fast the rain will spread across the southwest of England this afternoon, so here are the latest forecasts as of 09 UTC this Easter Sunday morning as a reminder.

Figure 1 – Courtesy of, BBC and the Met Office

Well all the models were much too slow in bringing the rain northeast across the southwest peninsula, and the BBC and Met Office forecasts weren’t much better either. If you look at the 15 UTC weather radar the rain had extended as far as Somerset (fig 2), nothing spectacularly wrong perhaps, only out by a couple of hours or so, but the various forecasts that I took a snapshot of (fig 1) were only for six hours ahead and should have been spot on. At least the old weather saying about solar halos still works!

Figure 3

Author: xmetman

An ex-metman passionate about all things to do with weather, climate and clouds

4 thoughts on “This afternoon’s rain across the southwest”

  1. April snow can only usually cause problems in borderline situations like this if it falls overnight.
    Having said that look what it did in Devon last Friday afternoon!

  2. Interesting to compare the video forecasts on the Met Office and BBC websites (now Alex has put his bunny rabbit down). MeteoGroup have tonight’s rain turning to snow over a very large area, Met Office only the Cambrians and a bit on the Pennines. I’m beginning to think that the MG graphics are forecaster intervened. I do remember hearing that BBC wanted to retain intervention.

    Automatic site-specific forecasts, i.e. those you see on the Met Office webpages or if you Google say ‘Silverton weather’, show rain turning to sleet or snow for a time at low-level sites early tomorrow morning, before turning back to rain. Snow only persists on high ground. So MG have gone out on something of a limb tonight…

  3. However, tomorrow is going to be almost continuous “heavy rain” according to the UKMO, while the BBC forecast has “sleet”.
    Which one do I believe.
    It is no advantage having so many forecasts to choose from!

  4. Yesterday, the UKMO forecast for today at Whitley Bay included no sun, with rain, overcast or cloud all day.

    Today however, the forecast is for sun or sunny intervals all day.

    Strangely, the BBC forecast, which had more sun in it yesterday, now has mostly cloudy until this evening.

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