Sunday looks interesting

Figure 1 – Courtesy of the Met Office (Sunday 12 UTC)

I did say last Sunday in the article return of the easterlies that it was still in the land of science fiction, well the models look to have been spot on even at T+168. The Met Office have a discrete centre of 1002 hPa on the low that seems to form on the northern edge of a warm trough that’s moving westward across France for 12 UTC on Sunday (fig 1). None of the other models, apart from the French ARPEGE seem to have pressure as low as that across the Channel on Sunday (fig 2), although it’s difficult to synchronise the validity time. It’s still 72 hours away, and we are now close to the vernal equinox, but this situation has the potential to cause a lot of disruption, especially if snow falls in the overnight period.

Figure 2 – Courtesy of www.wxcharts.eu

Today’s 06 UTC (Friday) from the GFS has a similar feel to it at T+42 (fig 3).

Figure 3 – Courtesy of www.wxcharts.eu

Author: xmetman

An ex-metman passionate about all things to do with weather, climate and clouds

2 thoughts on “Sunday looks interesting”

  1. The MO warning for snow has now been extended until Sunday to cover the period when most of the snow is forecast on Saturday night/Sunday morning.

  2. The models have been very good at handling these easterlies, what was always traditionally very difficult to forecast. Remember how quickly the January 1987 spell developed?
    Probably repeating myself here but I think this coming synop set up happened numerous times during the 1963 winter, depressions in the Channel with stalling fronts. Since 2009 most of my best snowfalls have been on a Saturday night…

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