I wonder what the collective noun is for a number of NWP models? You know the kind of thing – a murder of crows, a murmuration of starlings, an exaltation of larks. Perhaps its simply a pile of crap? That may sound a bit harsh, but that’s the thought that ran through my mind when I compare short-range model output in this current spell of severe weather across the country.
All I really want to know is how long is it going to snow, and although they all provide you with some kind of solution, they are all quite different and not that convincing. In the early 21st century you might have least expected some commonality between them at the T+18 or T+24 range, but no that doesn’t seem to be the case, well at least not with the forecast for midnight tonight. Perhaps I am just too naïve to have thought they would have been, probably because I watch too much Star Trek. Perhaps it’s the ongoing SSW event that’s sending the models a little crazy at the moment, I would be fascinated to see just how the UKMO model is coping with the current situation, hopefully it’s better than this lot:-