10 February 2018 – heavy rain over Northern Ireland

Figure 1 – Courtesy of the Met Office

The Met Office may have purposely forgotten to issue a strong wind warning for Philine yesterday, but the NWP model must have been indicating some heavy rain for Northern Ireland so they did issue a yellow warning of heavy rain for the province (fig 2). As you can see there was indeed some intense heavy rain, with rainfall rates of over 32 mm per hour at 1810 UTC (fig 1) close to where low Philine was developing a discrete centre. This shows you just how good the NWP models can be.

Figure 2 – Courtesy of the Met Office

Weather Radar Estimates

As far as I can see from my estimates from weather radar images there was a largish area with totals in excess of 50 mm for the period 10-1200 to 11-0845 (fig 3).

Figure 3 
Evidence from the rainfall gauge
Figure 4

It’s clear from the gauge network totals for the 24 hours ending 06 UTC (fig 4) that the weather radar may have been over doing the intensity of yesterday rain for some reason. The freezing level was low enough for the rain to be falling as snow down to low levels ~2500 feet, so the white intensities (fig 1) could have been some form of bright banding effect.

The warning itself was just about perfect for Northern Ireland, but there were even higher totals across northwest England and southwest Scotland that didn’t get a mention.

Author: xmetman

An ex-metman passionate about all things to do with weather, climate and clouds

One thought on “10 February 2018 – heavy rain over Northern Ireland”

  1. Last night there was a yellow warning for snow and ice in force for the NE of England, until 06:00 this morning.
    However the actual forecast was for “heavy rain” with temps mostly above 5c and never below zero.
    As it happened there was some rain, but never heavy, totaling a mere 3mm and the temp, only ever dipped to 1c.
    I have long argued that warnings are meaningless as long as they do not tie in with the actual forecasts for a particular location.