Could this be it?

Figure 1 – Courtesy of

I notice that the Met Office have now picked up on the change of type that the GFS seem to have been hinting at since the New Year and never seems to happen. The latest run shows this block establishing itself by T+312, with an easterly regime developing across northern Europe, with high pressure over Iceland and Scandinavia and low pressure over Iberia and the northern Mediterranean (fig 1). It’s essential that you get high pressure over Iceland to stop warm air riding over the top and collapsing the block as so often does.

It’s still a couple of weeks away, and we know just how highly unreliable NWP can be at this range – especially the GFS model, but it is at least supported by the latest medium range outlook (fig 2) from the Met Office – so we live in Hope – well we would if we could afford the house prices there.

Figure 2 – Courtesy of the Met Office

Author: xmetman

An ex-metman passionate about all things to do with weather, climate and clouds

2 thoughts on “Could this be it?”

  1. If I am interpreting the colour coding on these maps correctly, it seems to be predicting a chance of snow on the East coast on the 23rd?
    Temp. fell to -3.2c last night and is now only up to -0.4c, but there is surprisingly little ice, after all the snow melted.

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