January’s in Central England

Figure 1

The way January 2018 is going it looks a safe bet it won’t feature in either the warmest or coldest top thirty lists by the end of the month (fig 1). January’s have steadily been warming in the last 140 years in Central England at the rate of 0.85°C per 100 years, and the last cold one was back in 2010, in fact cold January’s are very much a rarity these days (fig 2).

Figure 2

Author: xmetman

An ex-metman passionate about all things to do with weather, climate and clouds

7 thoughts on “January’s in Central England”

  1. Yes, I would agree with you about minimum extremes this January, although yesterday provisionally produced the warmest 28th of January since 1878.

  2. “January’s have steadily been warming in the last 140 years in Central England at the rate of 0.85°C per 100 years”
    Actually that over-simplifies the story and the situation of January v February CET is, I think very interesting.
    By the 1730’s the 30 year averages had both risen together, to about 4c for February, and 3.5c for January, but by 1800, while the 30 year average for Feb. had stayed more or less the same, that for January had fallen to 2.5c.
    By 1870, the Jan. 30 year average had caught up again and by 1866 there was very little difference between the 30 year averages.
    Around the early 1900’s the January CET fell again, but rose again by 1940 so by then they were identical, which they have been ever since apart from the the 1960’s.
    By the 1980’s the CET 30 year averages for both months were about the same as they were in the early 1700’s.
    There have been 4 major falls in the January 30 year average, (1739-95, 1811-42, 1878-1908, 1940-1868) and it appears that another one may be due.

  3. What has been surprising about January 2018 is the lack of extremes, especially to the low. Very few hard frosts hence CET to January 24th is 1.39 c above mean. Winds aside, Central England has been far more temperate and well behaved than usual during the last five years or so during this warming phase. Definitely the most predictable rainfall too with neither drought nor flood. My early life from 1964-2000 was marked by shocking floods and droughts, most especially the flood of 1965 and 2001 and the drought of 1976 and continual shortages during the 1980s.

  4. Sorry for the delay in replying.
    PC is short for percentile – 0 is coldest 100 is warmest.
    The way I use percentiles is that I rank everything between 0 and 100.
    Some purists might say that should be 1 to 100, but what do they know!

  5. Sorry, I am still trying to work out what the fourth column headed “PC” is.
    I assume it means “PerCent”, but I can’t work out what it is a percentage of.
    Sorry if I am being thick!

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