Forecast of -14°C from the Met Office a little on the low side

Figure 1 – Courtesy of Twitter and the Met Office

Yesterday afternoon the Met Office were promising the coldest night since February 2012 (fig 1) when they said on Twitter:-

“Temps in rural parts of Scotland could fall as low as -14 or -15 °C tonight, which would make it the UK’s coldest night since 11 February 2012, almost 6 years ago! High pressure will bring clear & calm conditions and is dragging cold arctic air from the north”

Unfortunately, the low cloud of yesterday evening didn’t finally clear till towards midnight, neither was it ever  perfectly calm, and with only a patchy or thin cover of snow, the air temperature never got down as low as the -14°C that was promised.

In the end after trawling through all climate reports from sites which they like to keep to themselves, they did manage to find a -9.1°C at Dalwhinnie, just down the A9 from Aviemore (fig 2). The model does have problems, the -9°C instead of -15°C is just a symptom, it mishandled the overnight forecast of low cloud, surface wind, and probably the whole pressure field.

Figure 2 – Courtesy of Twitter and the Met Office

For the rest of us poor mortals who have to rely on the kindness of a man in Barcelona and his OGIMET website, here are the coldest spots from the SYNOP reports (fig 3). As you can see the other forecast temperatures outwith the Highlands of Scotland were much more accurate, except for southern areas and across East Anglia, where the strength of the wind prevented an air frost.

Figure 3
How did the BBC do?

The BBC who presumably use the same model data as the Met Office, almost got it almost right with a -10°C minimum (fig 4). I don’t know what they were thinking with a -4°C for the Western Isles and a -3°C for the Northern Isles though.

Figure 4

At one time the Met Office would have been just content in announcing the coldest night for six years after it had happened. But now because of the pressures of social media and to maintain their corporate image, they feel they must announce it before it does. This faux pas is certainly not on the same scale as the barbecue summer forecast was, and probably will go unnoticed by the vast majority of people anyway.

Author: xmetman

An ex-metman passionate about all things to do with weather, climate and clouds

One thought on “Forecast of -14°C from the Met Office a little on the low side”

  1. While the BBC weather map had only -10c for the Scottish countryside, Sarah Keith-Lucas did say that it could go as low as -15c in the Scottish glens.
    I guess its a question of whether you consider glens as “countryside”.

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