Nor’easter UK style

Figure 1

It’s a pity that our nor’easter across the south this morning hasn’t brought more of the weather that our American cousins associate with their nor’easters. Across southern areas it just means a biting cold wind, leaden skies and outbreaks of rain or wet snow. Low Xanthos is now a shrunken shadow of its former self across northern Germany, overnight developments have meant that the new kid on the block is low Yves over Brittany, its centre is much deeper than Xanthos was yesterday, with a minimum central pressure that’s already less than 960 hPa (fig 1).

A hard frost further north across the borders were winds were lighter and skies remained clear (fig 2).

Figure 2

Rather surprisingly, the whole meridional theme of the last couple of days is simply washed away in the next 36 hours or so, as we switch back into zonal mode across the UK.

Author: xmetman

An ex-metman passionate about all things to do with weather, climate and clouds

14 thoughts on “Nor’easter UK style”

  1. Excuse the delay, my phone & internet has been down for a couple of days & I’m catching up..

    Peter,
    In one of your posts you arrogantly & stupidly denigrate the work of ‘citizen scientists’; shame on you.
    Here’s a small list of some ‘citizen scientists’ whose works YOU may also wish to dismiss –
    Mary Anning, Chas Darwin, Michael Faraday, Ben Franklin, George Green, Geo Hadley, John Harrison, Herschel (William & Caroline), Oliver Heaviside, Thomas Huxley, Antonie van Leeuwenhoek, Gregor Mendel, Augusto and Michaela Odone, Joseph Priestley, Srinivasa Ramanujan, Geo Stephenson, Richard Trevithick, Leonardo da Vinci, James Watt, The Wright Brothers……
    Thankfully there are 100s of ‘citizen scientists’ that have changed the world the world we live in.

    You say-
    “Cherry picking odd days when production is low might convince you, it doesn’t me.”
    which is why you are not a power engineer.
    You fail to understand that to run a stable grid you need to cater for the worst case scenario & need a dispatchable supply…. wind & solar are not. (you’d be the first to complain if you were on the operating table & the power went off for a couple of days)

    You bang on about “Alternative energy” being the way forward, but give no data to show that it is an ‘Appropriate energy’ …. please do so.
    wind & solar can never be truly competitive as they are not dispatchable & require huge subsidy’s to be commercially viable.

    Your ideas on energy supply remind me of the Stephen Foster lyrics to ‘Beautiful Dreamer’
    (but I am giving your looks the benefit of doubt (:-)) .)

    I would love to see a 1.5C to 2C warming… just like they had in medieval times when in Greenland they grew barley in open fields & there were trees, or better, lets return to the 3C warmer the Romans enjoyed ‘Happy days’ indeed… (climate NOT the society); did the world end ? Did mankind die out? I don’t think so, however we did then enter the Maunder Minimum & it got bloody cold for a few 100 yrs, which we are sill recovering from.

    I’ve asked you several times in the past to supply some empirical evidence of man-made carbon dioxide induced global warming, & explain the actual mechanism that produces that unique effect & in particular the laws of physics that allows 1 molecule in 2,500 to increase the the temperature of something hotter than it’s self,.
    … you seem unable to do so…. why is that ?

  2. Regarding electric cars, I am surprised at your lack of support, given your other views.
    I would have thought that they would be the obvious solution to the problem of CO2 and other pollution, if the electricity could be generated from renewable sources as easily as you suggest.
    Actually, given your views, I am surprised that you drive a car at all, and don’t rely on public transport.

    Best not to base ones views on stereotypes then….

    Though, if it pleases you, you can believe I do live in a cave, wear sackcloth, live on lentils and wear sandels… But, no, I simply try to pollute this planet as little as I reasonably can – I can’t (tbh) see the problem with doing that? So, for example, I drive, but I drive a very small car and intend to run it into the ground. I do share 1save’s view that electric cars are going to put a great demand upon electricity supply and its infrastructure – I suspect such such changes are coming though.

  3. PeterH
    “You and Q can’t pretend all you like, accuse really good observers and scientists of this or that misdeed but its clearly happening. Good news (for you two) we’re going to keep adding ghg at a rapid pace and people like you two will still be pretending its not happening when we see 1.5C warming, 2C warming etc etc. ‘Happy days’ eh?”
    Why would you think that “it’s good news for us”?
    I have no particular interest in adding more CO2, if it is indeed causing an increase in global temperature, I simply don’t think that much of what is claimed about “climate change” is borne out by the evidence.
    Regarding electric cars, I am surprised at your lack of support, given your other views.
    I would have thought that they would be the obvious solution to the problem of CO2 and other pollution, if the electricity could be generated from renewable sources as easily as you suggest.
    Actually, given your views, I am surprised that you drive a car at all, and don’t rely on public transport.

  4. So just to cover tonight’s demand we’d require at least 11 times the capacity we have now to keep the lights on, but it’s a huge intermittent supply & the cost of grid storage is eye watering.” fairly close to my guess then…

    Fwiw, I’m as unconvinced by electric cars as you are. Nor do I drive a diesel, they’re dirty, smoky things. And, I blame govt too – the one that scrapped much of our railways and encouraged/pushed us into using cars for mass transport. So, when I go to work I take half a tonne of metal and plastic (and god know how much embedded energy) with me, and millions of others do too – bonkers (no, don’t start, I wouldn’t ban cars…).

    Alternative energy. Cherry picking odd days when production is low might convince you, it doesn’t me. Yes, we need to balance load, but, no, its not a ‘can’t do’ thing – don’t be so negative, problems are there to be solved. Solar and wind power are here to stay because they are increasingly competitive.

    Anthro climate change. You and Q can’t pretend all you like, accuse really good observers and scientists of this or that misdeed but its clearly happening. Good news (for you two) we’re going to keep adding ghg at a rapid pace and people like you two will still be pretending its not happening when we see 1.5C warming, 2C warming etc etc. ‘Happy days’ eh?

    Plastic. If the world act to control the unbelievable amounts of plastic being chucked away I predict that: firstly the plastic industry will cast doubt on the figures, others will say those ‘anti plastic waste’ (APW) campaigners are lefties or commies who want to take away or bottles, and others will start websites pointing to reseach by ‘citizen scientists’ that plastic is actually good for albatrosses and that the ‘APW brigade’ are all liars and that APW is a big conspiracy…

  5. PeterH

    Thank you for your reply.

    I didn’t ask 1save to justify his remarks because I assumed they were not meant seriously.

    On the other hand, you seemed so certain of your contention that “we could do it”, that I assumed you would have figures to back that up, and I am disappointed that you don’t, only vague wishful thinking.

    First of all, I should say that I am probably as concerned as you are over the other environmental issues, such as air pollution, plastic pollution, species extinction and habitat degradation, but most of those are nothing to do with climate change and reducing the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere won’t help with them.

    In fact, some of the measures to reduce CO2 would probably make them worse since they would involve turning over vast areas of land to wind-farms and solar arrays.

    Unfortunately the “climate change” issue and other environmental issues have been conflated and the assumption is often made that reducing CO2 is a panacea for all environmental ills.

    Also I think that a lot of the claims made about the effects of “climate change” while not deliberate lies, are misguided confirmation bias.

    I used to believe in “climate change” but now I tend to take each claim on it’s merits and I find that many of them just don’t stand up to scrutiny.

    One example is the recent claim that climate model predictions of temperatures were “bang on”, when even after the recent apparent rise, temperatures are at the bottom end of the temperature prediction range.

  6. Temp. only fell to -1.6c at 05:58, which I am surprised at, given the temps. in the rest of the country.
    The temp. doesn’t seem to have been as low in the NE as further south.
    Currently -1.2c, no more snow but still on the ground from previous fall together with ice.

  7. Part 1

    Peter,

    Well firstly, I’ll note that 1save energy didn’t comment on the ‘White Christmas’ post.

    2nd “and of course I expect derision…” OK, just so as you’re not disappointed –

    You don’t seem very adept at understanding physics, maths, or chemistry & now power supply.

    Britain has ~13GW Solar PV, ~15GW Wind, ~1.6 GW Hydro: total say 30GW nameplate capacity, but….

    Tonight at 18:00 the UK demand was 51.8 GW; supplied by –

    Wind = 4.2 GW.

    Solar = 0 GW.

    Hydro =0.5 GW.

    (The other 47.1 GW was covered by Gas, Coal, Nuclear, + odds.

    So just to cover tonight’s demand we’d require at least 11 times the capacity we have now to keep the lights on, but it’s a huge intermittent supply & the cost of grid storage is eye watering.

    Here’s an example of a ‘green grid’ on El Hierro, real life figs

    http://euanmearns.com/tag/el-hierro/

    Continued in part 2 –

  8. Part 2

    But, the green dream doesn’t stop there; we are moving towards electric cars replacing all ICE cars by 2040; let’s look at some quick back of fag packet figs –

    There are approximately 30M private cars on the roads today.
    If overnight they all became Teslas, then if they all plugged in at the same time, the Grid would experience a demand of some 222GW (30M x 7.4kW) – i.e. 69 Hinckleys.

    If on the other hand, they were all Leafs, then the power demand when they all plugged in would be slightly half of that at 108GW (30M times 3.6kW) or some 30GW greater than the official DUKES figures for the UK total generating capacity in 2016.

    So to cope with a ‘green’ max demand we’d require between 36 & 62 times the wind capacity we have now to keep the lights on.

    Where you going to put them all (the best sites are all taken).

    What will you do when we have a week long blocking high pressure system covering UK.

    Then on top of that there’s the massive infrastructure to support all the charging loads, the massive dirty battery industry required, do you really think all that’s a ‘low carbon option’?

    You say –

    The “cities are bathed in a choking smog of anthropogenic gasses and particulates”

    That’s because idiotic politicians listened to green zealots & ignored the engineers & chemists (we told them for years to use LPG & not to use diesel), but ‘the dear leaders’ knew best.

    Nb: Battery Electric Vehicles are the least efficient way of using fuel energy, do the math’s !

    For a cleaner world, Alternative energy is NOT the way forward…. Appropriate energy is.

    Some interesting links here – https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2017/12/11/dont-bank-on-solar-power-in-winter/

  9. In case you suggest that I could work this out myself, I would point out that I am not advocating such a combination, and I think those who are, should provide the figures.

    Well firstly I’ll note you haven’t asked 1save to provide the figure for his claims in the ‘White Christmas’ post that: ‘they’ve convinced themselves that we are all going to fry’ and that ‘it would have been cheaper to give them an X-box each, and we’d have had the same results.’. Odd that eh ;). I don’t think we’re going to fry and I don’t think the Met O are wrong to invest in a lot of computing power.

    Anyway, I said ‘with the will’ and ‘we could do it’ because its quite clear that with enough wind, solar and hydro we could provide all our electricity from renewables. The figures? Off the top of my head I think that’s at least ten times as much as now. Would I rather that than coal or gas power? Yes, long term, I would, and I am quite sure that it would, overall, vastly benefit life on this planet if everyone did so. I wish this whole planet went that way and the air started to clean up. I wish we would stop throwing away plastic too – with the will that could be stopped too. Or that others on this planet stopped extinguishing species because of some myth or another about its eating benefits. OR we used water more wisely, or… the list just goes on and on….

    Negativity, laziness, ignorance and a can’t do attitude – it leads to a polluted, over exploited increasingly degraded planet.

    IMV – and of course I expect derision…

  10. PeterH
    While I am not against pollution free energy, for reasons other than “climate change”, I would be interested in some facts.
    What combination of wind/solar (no nuclear) would be required to generate all the UK energy requirements from those sources?
    How many wind turbines/area of solar panels and how many batteries would be required to ensure continuity of supply?
    In case you suggest that I could work this out myself, I would point out that I am not advocating such a combination, and I think those who are, should provide the figures.

  11. …and heard some ‘green’ dork on the radio saying the UK could run on just wind & solar.“.

    We could – its as simple as that. With the will to do it we could. It would need storage technologies but we could do it. You have a ‘can’t do’ attitude.

    I don’t want to live in a world where CO2 is 400ppm and I’m afraid if those who wont accept the evidence continue to prevail we’ll see 500ppm and much more. Only someone who willfully ignores the science will think that ever increased atmospheric ghg isn’t a problem.

    I don’t want to live in a world where many great cities are bathed in a choking smog of anthropogenic gasses and particulates either – you must think that’s a good thing too…

    Alternative energy is the way forward, for a cleaner world – and name calling wont alter that!

  12. Anglesey 09:45
    Lovely bright sunny crisp morning, fist time I’ve had to scrape car windscreen this winter but nothing on the fields, no wind so nothing from local wind turbines & sun so low in the sky the 4,000W solar PV is only giving 266W (not enough to power my computers ) and heard some ‘green’ dork on the radio saying the UK could run on just wind & solar.

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