You can’t say the Met Office aren’t gearing up for this coming cold spell good and early, they’ve issued a batch of warnings for strong wind and ice and snow this morning for across the country. Personally I think they could have left it till tomorrow when they could see a little more of the white’s of its eyes, cold spells are so well publicised that I doubt if that many people haven’t heard about its impending arrival already. Here’s their forecast chart solution for 12 UTC on Thursday (fig 1).
That looks like an awfully tight gradient wrapped around that bent back occlusion across the Moray Firth, but so far no mention of a storm Caroline from the team down in Exeter, so we may have to live with ‘Walter’ or even ‘son of Walter’ as the BIM look likely to name it. I wonder if that particular feature was over the Thames estuary rather than the North of Scotland how they would react?
There will be plenty of snow showers down to low levels in exposed places of course, and the early yellow warning for snow and ice indicates the latest thinking about which areas will be most affected (fig 2).
I couldn’t help defacing the work of art that the Met Office have produced as a snow and ice warning for Friday and Saturday (fig 2) by adding my own red hatched line to mark out the coastal strip of the SE of Scotland and NE of England. It looks a little churlish not to include this area, I suppose the reasoning behind it is that airstream behind low Walter is set to be more from the NW, rather than the north or N’NE, and backed from last Wednesdays true northerly, which should offer more shelter to places in that part of the world that saw snow then. I still wouldn’t fancy tackling the A1 or A68 south of Edinburgh on Thursday night though.