Met Office still clinging to a mild second half of December

I see that in the latest 30 day extended outlook from the Met Office, that they are still forecasting that the weather will turn milder from the middle of December (fig 1). They have been saying that for some time now, so obviously they know something that we don’t. I for one, hope that they are completely and utterly wrong in making that prediction, but I’m afraid that I can’t back that up with any real hard scientific facts.

Figure 1 – Courtesy of the Met Office

What I can back it up with though is some good old scientific fiction, courtesy of the T+192 from the latest run of the GFS model (fig 2). A 1000-500 hPa partial thickness of 516 dm should guarantee snow down to sea level I would have thought.

Figure 2 – Courtesy of OGIMET


I couldn’t help revisiting this because the meteorological jargon in the first paragraph is just so confusing:

A north to south split is favoured from Sunday and into early next week. It will be mainly cloudy in the north and west with some light rain or drizzle in places, however in the south and east it looks to be mainly dry with sunny spells”

In the first sentence ‘A north to south split‘ in my book would mean that there would be different weather in the north than in the south, but if that’s what he meant why didn’t he just say north-south split? But the second sentence then contradicts that by saying that the weather in the north and west would be different from the weather in the south and east. Of course if he had said that there was a northwest southeast split that would have confused the issue even more and have people mentally drawing lines from the Hebrides to Kent only to succeed in splitting the country into southwest and northeast. If I remember Michael Fish dreamed this one up, but I think he only had the two, north-south and east-west, which work. I think diagonal splits are to be avoided at all costs!

Author: xmetman

An ex-metman passionate about all things to do with weather, climate and clouds

One thought on “Met Office still clinging to a mild second half of December”

  1. Having made a forecast, it is difficult for them to change it.
    There is probably a name for that but I can’t think what it is at the moment.

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