The GFS model was correct when it had the tightest gradient from storm Sebastian at midnight tonight further south, across most of England and Wales south of 54° north. It’s a subtle change between todays T+24 (fig 1) and yesterdays T+48 from the Met Office (fig 2).
Here’s the latest GFS solution, with the tightest gradient at midnight south of 53° north.
The low being a little further south of course changes the position of the occlusion, and the area that will see the heaviest of the rain. That yellow warning for heavy rain has now been moved south and extended (fig 4).
The only thing left that they have to do now is to extend the area of strongest winds further south, Oh I nearly forgot, and decide if they should call it Aileen or leave it at Sebastian. In light of recent tropical cyclone activities, and not wanting to cause any mass panic amongst the populace, naming it Aileen seems unlikely now, but what if Sebastian has more fire in its belly than they think?