Sebastian a little further south

Figure 1

The GFS model was correct when it had the tightest gradient from storm Sebastian at midnight tonight further south, across most of England and Wales south of 54° north. It’s a subtle change between todays T+24 (fig 1) and yesterdays T+48 from the Met Office (fig 2).

Figure 2

Here’s the latest GFS solution, with the tightest gradient at midnight south of 53° north.

Figure 3

The low being a little further south of course changes the position of the occlusion, and the area that will see the heaviest of the rain. That yellow warning for heavy rain has now been moved south and extended (fig 4).

Figure 4 – Courtesy of the Met Office

The only thing left that they have to do now is to extend the area of strongest winds further south, Oh I nearly forgot, and decide if they should call it Aileen or leave it at Sebastian. In light of recent tropical cyclone activities, and not wanting to cause any mass panic amongst the populace, naming it Aileen seems unlikely now, but what if Sebastian has more fire in its belly than they think?

About xmetman

An ex-metman passionate about all things to do with weather, climate and clouds
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One Response to Sebastian a little further south

  1. quaesoveritas says:

    Whitley Bay is now covered by the yellow warning for rain, with heavy rain actually in the forecast from 21:00 tonight until 07:00 tomorrow with a probabity of 90
    I don’t think the yellow wind warning has changed although the forecasted peak is now earlier at 04:00 but only at 22 mph wind with 35 mph gusts.