Come on Aileen!

Figure 1

I see that the Met Office have just issued a yellow warnings for strong winds for Monday across the southwest of England, but the gradient on Tuesday evening when the next low breezes in looks even tighter in the latest GFS model run, maybe this is storm Aileen, and the first storm of the 2017-18 season?

Figure 2

If anything the Met Office model seems to have the low (981 hPa) a little more intense and deeper than the ~984 hPa of the GFS.

Apologies for the title of this one, but I thought that I would get in before the Daily Express did!

Author: xmetman

An ex-metman passionate about all things to do with weather, climate and clouds

3 thoughts on “Come on Aileen!”

  1. The forecasted wind speed at Whitley Bay for Wednesday at 07:00 has been reduced to 20 mph with 35 mph gusts, but despite that, a yellow warning is still in force.
    I have sent an email to the MO asking why.

  2. I was expecting to see some high winds in the forecast for Whitley Bay, but while the forecasted speed has been increased since this morning from 15mph to 22 mph at 07:00 on Wednesday, that is as high as it gets.
    On the other hand, the MO have issued a yellow warning for wind from 22:00 on Tuesday to 10:00 on Wednesday when the wind is mostly below 20mph. with gusts below 38mph, which seems a bit OTT, bearing in mind the warning quotes gusts of 55-60 mph with 70mph possible. Another example of inappropriate blanket warnings perhaps?

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